Thursday, March 31, 2016
Some minor end of the month selling as the Dow fell 31 points on light volume. The advance/declines were slightly positive. The summation index continues higher. The small stocks are showing relative strength. We're still overbought and the market is still in an up trend until proven otherwise. The employment report will be the mover tomorrow. The market reaction to the numbers and not the numbers themselves will be the key. We are right at what I consider the important 2060 level in the S&P 500. My SPY April puts still are showing a slight gain. That could all change tomorrow and most likely will. GE was off a few cents and the volume was average. Gold was up about $5 on the futures as the US dollar was lower again. The XAU lost around 3/4, while GDX shed 1/4. Volume was very light. Mentally I'm feeling OK. We should see some positive money flows with the beginning of the month tomorrow unless there is a surprise with the jobs report. It still feels as though the market wants to go higher here. So we'll see what happens. I suppose things could go either way. Some of the short term technical indicators for the S&P 500 have been overbought for a month and a half. This will not last forever but it sure seems that way. There is a potential negative divergence on the McClellan oscillator with lower readings and higher prices. If that plays out we will head lower. But is a potential divergence, nothing has happened yet. So tomorrow could set the tone for the days to come. The overseas markets were slightly lower. All eyes will be on Fridays employment report.