Monday, March 21, 2016
A quiet Monday of a short trading week as the Dow gained 21 points on light volume. The advance/declines were about even. The summation index continues higher. I did place an order for the SPY April puts but canceled it later in the session. I may try again tomorrow. It's possible that we have a bit more room to go on the upside as the longer term down trend line for the S&P comes in at around 2160. It's also possible that we simply remain overbought and plow higher as other indices have already moved past this resistance. So trying this SPY put trade is not a slam dunk. We'll have to see how things look tomorrow. GE was up over 1/8 but the volume was light. No trades here for now. Gold was off $10 on the futures as the US dollar was higher. The XAU and GDX had slight fractional moves one way or the other on light volume. I still believe that gold and the gold shares need to take a rest. Mentally I'm feeling OK. Friday is a holiday so the trading this week could be slow and skewed. We have moved into the April option cycle and therefore the premiums are still high. The rally off of the recent lows has a similar look to it as the one last October. It should be just about running out of steam. Not to mention that the market will not remain overbought forever. If we get to 2060 on the S&P 500, I will probably put in an order for the April puts. It will have to be a short term deal. We'll see what happens tomorrow. The foreign markets overnight were generally lower but not by a lot. It is holiday mode there as well, with most overseas markets closed next Monday as well. So it most likely isn't a time to be making any major trades. However as always the markets will go where they want. We'll keep an eye on the overnight developments and go from there.