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Tuesday, March 08, 2016

Lower today as the Dow fell 109 points on average volume.  The advance/declines were 3 to 1 negative.  Overdue for some downside but one day doesn't make a trend.  I still feel that we will see new highs in the S&P 500 for this move higher that began in February.  I could be wrong.  The summation index continues up.  We had to work off the extremely high readings in the McClellan oscillator and today is the beginning of that.  Although I'm not completely sure of what technical set up to look for here, I'm going back to seeking the SPY March calls.  The put trade that I was looking at yesterday will now be moot.  We needed to get up to 2025 for that.  GE was off 1/4 and the volume was average.  Perhaps if we trade back down to $29.50 I can try the March calls here as well.  It probably won't be a perfect technical set up though.  Gold didn't do much on the futures today as the US dollar was a bit higher.  The dollar is resting on its 200 day moving average.  It is something to keep an eye on.  The XAU lost 3 points, while GDX shed a point.  Volume was heavy.  The decline in the gold shares is not positive for gold.  Mentally I'm feeling tired as I have just returned from the dentist.  Once again outside influences are affecting my concentration here.  I think that if we continue weaker into the end of the week that I'll try the SPY March calls.  It won't be the perfect set up but some of the indicators could reach a short term buy spot.  It was a decidedly negative session with the small stocks and overall market weaker than the Dow.  The TRAN took a pretty good drop as well.  I do not think that this is the beginning of a new leg down for the stock market.  The technical indicators for the major averages have turned down but I don't think that they will get all the way down to an oversold reading.  But they could.  The market goes where it wants.  There is a chance that this is the beginning of building a top before we head back lower with a lot more steam.  But building a decent top will take time and one day of decline after a huge run up doesn't really mean anything yet.  The foreign markets were generally lower overnight.  We'll see if we get any downside follow through tomorrow.


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James said...

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