Tuesday, March 15, 2016
A mixed bag today as the Dow was up 22 points on light volume. The advance/declines were about 3 to 1 negative. The overall market was weaker than the Dow, with both the S&P and the small stocks negative. We did finish well above the lows for the session. The summation index is still moving up. It does appear that things are beginning to deteriorate under the surface. I'm still holding out for higher prices this week though. The NYA is right at the downtrend line that is almost a year in the making. Other major indices are still shy of this important barrier. It will bear close watching right now. We'll see how it goes with the Fed tomorrow. GE was little changed and volume was light. Gold fell over $10 on the futures, while the US dollar was unchanged. The XAU and GDX were up around 3/8. Volume was average. Gold should move off of the Fed as well. Which way is the question. Mentally I'm feeling OK. Underperformance of the small stocks could be a sign of things to come if it keeps up. The ideal scenario would be for a top to build here in the coming days and weeks. But the market rarely accommodates our wishes. I am looking at the SPY April puts. The short term technical indicators are still overbought. This condition has persisted for quite a while. It will have to end at some point. But if you have tried to pick the top over the past few weeks, you have been disappointed. So we'll see. I do expect some volatility post Fed. It is simply wait and see time. The overseas markets were lower overnight. We'll see what tomorrow brings.