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Monday, March 28, 2016

Just hanging around as the Dow rose 19 points on very light volume.  The advance/declines were positive.  The summation index is moving sideways.  Plenty of foreign market closures due to Easter.  Tomorrow we should be back at full strength.  Yellen is blabbing tomorrow, so the markets should move off of that.  I'd still like to try the SPY April puts but I'm not married to the idea.  I think that we could see some strength going into the employment report on Friday.  GE was up 1/3 on good volume for today.  That's a new 52 week high for GE.  If GE is a precursor for the overall market, then we will go higher.  Gold was flat on the futures but up a bit in the cash market.  The US dollar was lower today.  The XAU and GDX had slight fractional losses on very light volume.  Mentally I'm feeling OK.  Sitting tight for now as the ideal scenario for the SPY put trade would be a rise into Thursday.  However we cannot rule out even higher prices going forward.  The long term down trend line for the S&P comes in at around 2060.  A rise to that level would be the best chance for the April puts.  At least that is my thinking at the moment.  A light volume rise here would be the best background for getting short.  We've got the end of the month and the quarter looming ahead of the jobs report.  All of the overseas markets will be back in action overnight.  We'll see how things react to what Yellen has to say tomorrow.

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