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Thursday, March 17, 2016

Still moving higher in an expiration week levitation.  The Dow gained 155 points on average volume.  The advance/declines were about 4 to 1 positive.  The summation index continues higher.  The TRAN took off today and that's a positive.  The NYA is the first index to break its long term downtrend line.  Is this a sign of things to come?  Could be as we are still in the seasonally positive time frame.  Volume picked up today and that is a plus as well.  The only blemish is that the small stocks here are relative under performers.  I'm still considering the SPY April puts for a short term trade at the beginning of next week.  GE rose 3/4 today on heavy volume.  We could hit new yearly highs tomorrow.  Gold was off a couple bucks after yesterdays stellar gains.  The US dollar dropped over a point.  It wasn't a good sign that we didn't see gold rally with that drop in the dollar.  The XAU and GDX both shed around 1/2 on heavy volume.  Obviously we should have rallied on the weaker dollar here as well.  These shares are long overdue for some pullback though.  Mentally I'm feeling OK.  The expected stock market run up into the March expiration is appearing on cue.  It is a very interesting game to say the least.  We've been overbought here as well for longer than average.  So some kind of decline or sideways price action is long overdue here as well.  When it occurs I do not expect it to last long.  Will it be worth trading is the question we face now.  If we hold up into Monday, I may try the SPY April puts.  We'll let the market dictate if this happens.  I did miss out on gains that could have been had with the March calls.  However once we get to overbought, you never really know how long the market will stay there.  Having said that, we could see a drop at any time.  So I'm going to let the expiration pass tomorrow and focus on next week.  Foreign markets were mixed again last night.  We'll close out the week tomorrow. 

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