Wednesday, March 02, 2016
Nowhere to go but up as the Dow gained 34 points on good volume. The advance/declines were 2 to 1 positive. The summation index continues higher. Rally mode, overbought and staying there. The market will probably trend up into the March expiration and there is still over 2 weeks to go. Declines can be bought but they have been shallow so far. I'm still looking for 2000 on the S&P 500 and then perhaps to the 200 day moving average at 2025. The data that comes out doesn't seem to matter as the bulls are in control. Seasonality favors long positions as well. The employment report on Friday will most likely continue the trend. GE was up 1/3 on average volume. At this rate we'll be hitting a new 52 week high here soon. Perhaps the calls here will still work for March. I'll check the specifics tonight. Gold was up $10 on the futures. The US dollar was slightly lower today. Metals are finding buyers again for whatever reason. FCX has doubled in a little over a month. I haven't mentioned this stock before but I was looking to put it in a longer term account but by the time I started to pay attention it was too late. Simply another missed opportunity. The XAU was up almost 2 1/2, while GDX added 1/2. Volume was good. I still think the gold shares need to take a break. Mentally I'm feeling OK. All signs point to higher prices as money flows into stocks around the world. Oil has stopped going down and perhaps that is seen as a plus for now. There are weekly down trend lines for the major averages that remain in place. We are approaching them but are not there yet. That should be the moment of truth for this rally. At that point we can try the SPY puts but we have to wait until we get there. You could look at yesterdays price action as the short covering for those attempts at the 1950 resistance level on the S&P 500. Just a guess there as usual. So with over 2 weeks left in the March option cycle patience is still required. Global markets are in rally mode as well. We'll watch the overnight action and go from there.