Monday, March 14, 2016
Waiting on the Fed would be the best way to describe todays price action. The Dow added 15 points on very light volume. The advance/declines were negative. The summation index continues higher. I'm expecting higher prices this week as it's option expiration. The next trade looks like the SPY April puts if and when we get to around the 2050 level in the S&P 500. I do not anticipate trying any trades in the SPY this week. Plenty of economic data out his week, with retail sales and inflation numbers. As always, the market reaction will be the most important part of all this. GE was off a few cents and the volume light. No trades here for now. Gold took it on the chin, losing over $20 on the futures. The US dollar was higher. The XAU lost 1 3/4, while GDX shed 7/8/ Volume was heavy. Gold and the gold shares appear to finally be taking the break that they need. Mentally I'm feeling OK. I suspect that we will continue our way higher to maximize the March calls. The major stock indices remain short term overbought and have been for weeks. At this juncture simply waiting for the market to hit the multi-week down trend line seems to be the best plan of action. Or inaction as the case may be. I would not be surprised if we headed higher tomorrow despite the technical conditions. It is the reaction to the Fed that I believe will be the most important price movement of the week. I could be wrong. Foreign markets were higher overnight as the drop in oil was a non event. Perhaps the market microscope is off that commodity now. We'll keep an eye on the overnight developments and go from there.