Monday, March 07, 2016
Back and forth we went today with the Dow finishing with a gain of 67 points on good volume. The advance/declines were 2 to 1 positive. The summation index continues higher. The overall market was weaker than the Dow, with the small stocks negative. Certainly we are due for a rest here but regardless, the trend remains up. Plenty of resistance coming up with the 200 day moving average and the longer term downtrend line. I'm thinking that the 2025-2030 level on the S&P 500 would be a good place to attempt the SPY puts for a short term trade. We'll see if the market cooperates. Not a lot of economic data due this week but we do have an announcement coming later in the week from the ECB. GE was off 1/8 on light volume. I'm still looking for new yearly highs here soon although we do remain short term overbought. The short term uptrend line remains intact. Gold was off a couple bucks on the futures and the US dollar was lower as well. The XAU was up a couple points and GDX rose 2/3. Volume was good. We remain overbought for an extended period for the gold shares and gold as well. This cannot go on indefinitely. Mentally I'm feeling OK. The rally in stocks cannot go on forever. We have been overbought for an extended period of time. The McClellan oscillator is at its highest reading in years. We are bumping up against some pretty strong resistance. The plan will be to look at the SPY March puts if we get to the 2025 level on the S&P 500 for a short term trade. 9 days left in the March option cycle. So there will be plenty of risk out there if this trade is attempted. We will simply have to keep an eye on things and see what the market does here. Oil had another good day and it appears that decline is over. It did not help stocks that much so maybe that relationship has run its course. I do think that gold needs to take a rest. Given that March is historically the weakest month for the precious metal, I'd expect some type of decline there to begin sooner rather than later. The foreign stock markets were slightly weaker overnight. We'll be watching developments overnight and get ready for Tuesday.