Tuesday, March 01, 2016
A blast off to the upside to begin the month of March. The Dow jumped 348 points on good volume. The advance/declines were about 5 to 1 positive. The summation index is heading up. It was a broad based rally and there is still room to go. We have now moved above the 50 day moving average and the 1950 level on the S&P 500. Next stop 2000. We will get there and probably in the March option cycle. It doers not appear that a trade in the SPY March calls is going to happen for me. This was simply another missed opportunity. This is a move that I should have chased. Retrospect is never wrong. GE was up 3/4 on average volume. Comfortably above the 50 day moving average here now as well. Gold fell a couple bucks on the futures as the US dollar was slightly higher. The XAU fell 2 1/3, while GDX shed 3/4. Volume was above average. Perhaps this is the beginning of a pause for the gold shares that we've been looking for. We'll see. It is long overdue. Mentally I'm feeling OK. It looks like we might have to wait for the April or May SPY puts for the next trade. The key will be from what level do we attempt that. There's a chance that we could go all the way back to 2050 in the coming weeks. The McClellan oscillator continues to be at a very high level in the +200s, that usually leads to extended advances for the major averages. There is still plenty of time in the March option cycle but I do not think that price is going to accommodate us. Declines are being bought rather quickly, so I don't think the chance to get some March calls is going to happen. I could be wrong. We don't make any money sitting on the sidelines but obviously the best time to purchase the calls has passed. Foreign markets moved higher as well overnight but not to the extent of what we saw in the US today. I do expect to see a worldwide rally overnight though. We'll be watching as usual.