Tuesday, March 29, 2016
A one day reversal to the upside as the Dow opened lower and closed higher. The most watched index gained 97 points on light volume. The advance/declines were 4 to 1 positive. This should turn the summation index back to the upside. The overall market was much stronger than the Dow with the small stocks leading the way. We are on the way to making new highs for the rally. This certainly throws the purchase of the SPY April puts into question. We simply could just continue to go higher. Yellen spoke and the market responded. The next market moving event should be the employment report on Friday. GE was flat on the day and the volume was average. Gold took off on the Yellen speech. The futures rose over 20 bucks. The US dollar took a hit as well, which supported the move in gold. The XAU gained 3 1/2, while GDX added 1 1/8. Volume was heavy. The short term technical indicators have turned back up for the gold shares. Mentally I'm feeling OK. It really looks like all signs are pointing to higher prices despite the continued overbought condition of the market. It is entirely possible that the S&P 500 will break through the longer term down trend line that has been in effect for about a year. This would be a very bullish development if it were to occur. The overall strength we saw today is a positive and I would expect some follow through tomorrow. That may be the chance to try the SPY April puts but I will have to think about it tonight. The market really has the feel of wanting to go higher now. We also have the beginning of the month on Friday and that should have some positive money flows. So we'll see. there's also the possibility that this is the last gasp up to the longer term down trend line before rolling over. However the action today sees to say otherwise. Never an easy time of it in this game. The foreign markets were mixed overnight with no big moves either way. We'll keep an eye on things overnight and see what tomorrow brings.