Wednesday, March 30, 2016
Upside follow through as the Dow rose 83 points on light volume. The advance/declines were almost 2 to 1 positive. The summation index is moving up. We had a gap higher at the open and I did purchase some SPY April puts in the morning. They are slightly in the black. I'm not exactly sure that this trade will work but we will know by the end of the week. The 2060 level for the S&P 500 looks like the key close for the week for me. If we are much higher above that level, the long term down trend line will be broken. Things could go either way here so we will just have to wait and see. GE was up 1/3 on average volume. A gap up to start the day here as well. If GE is a leader, the overall market will be moving higher. Gold was off $10 on the futures despite a drop in the US dollar. That is not a positive sign for the gold bulls. The XAU and GDX had slight fractional losses on lighter volume. These issues are taking a rest and that could be constructive longer term. Mentally I'm feeling OK. I'm giving the SPY April puts a shot here knowing full well that anything can happen. We are still short term overbought and have remained that way for a long time. That will not last forever. The volume here is light and light volume rallies are not to be trusted. We will have a potential negative divergence in the McClellan oscillator after todays trading. The S&P is right at the long term down trend line. It will either take a breather here or simply break through the line to even higher prices. My thinking is that it will at least stall out but I could be wrong. The employment report on Friday will most likely be the catalyst one way or the other. I'd expect tomorrow to be a wait and see kind of session with light volume. Although it is the end of the month and first quarter of the year. Foreign markets were higher overnight with the exception of Japan. We'll keep an eye on the developments this evening.