Thursday, March 10, 2016
We bounced around a lot today but the Dow ended only down 5 points on a little less than average volume. The advance/declines were negative. The summation index is still moving up. We were up and down over 100 points during the session. The ECB statement came out and that was the given reason for the volatility. It makes for tough trading here because there really is no solid signal at this time. With only 6 days to go in the March option cycle the trading risk is high. The technical indicators for the S&P 500 are still more overbought than oversold. They started to roll over today but then the market made a comeback. I don't see any decent trades here at the moment. GE was off 1/8 and the volume was average. Gold rallied $15 on the futures as the US dollar dropped about a point. The XAU was up 2 2/3, while GDX added 7/8. Volume was lighter than lately. I still think this group needs to take a rest but it isn't listening to me. Mentally I'm feeling OK. Smaller stocks were weaker today and that is not a bullish sign. But I can't rule out higher prices in the near term due to the expiration week coming upon us. It usually has a bullish bias. I can maybe make a case for the SPY March calls if we are weaker into Monday. Otherwise I'll probably just have to sit it out. The currency action today was confusing. More accommodation from the ECB was met with euro buying and dollar selling. A normal response to this would be just the opposite. But the market always knows more than we do. It makes for tough trading for sure. Now we'll move on to the Fed next week and see how the market responds to whatever comes out of that. Really without a clear trading signal right now the best course of action should be to stay on the sidelines. Perhaps I can at least accomplish that. Europe was lower overnight after the ECB, while Asia finished mixed. We'll keep an eye on what happens tonight and close out the trading week tomorrow.