Monday, February 29, 2016
Weaker to end the month of February as the Dow fell 123 points on average volume. The advance/declines were positive though. The summation index continues to the upside. Trying to get above the 50 day moving average for many of the major stock indices. Some downside is expected as we remain overbought on a short term basis. The McClellan oscillator is also very extended to the upside. If we do remain lower into Thursday, perhaps we'll get a chance for the SPY March calls after all. Lots of trading before then though. GE was off 1/4 and the volume was average. Gold was up around $14 on the futures. The US dollar finished little changed. The XAU rose 2 points, while GDX added 2/3. Volume was good. I still think that the gold shares need to take a rest as they have been over extended for weeks now. Money has flowed into this sector for whatever reason. I'd wait for an oversold reading before chasing this group. Both short and medium term overbought. Mentally I'm feeling OK. Some more decline this week would set up the reverse head and shoulders pattern that may emerge in some of the major stock indexes. That looks to be the set up worth trading if it occurs. However I would expect to see some beginning of the month money flows in the next couple of days as well. Never an easy trade in this game. I'm still a believer that we are not about to see any major decline in the near term. I could be wrong but the technical indicators in my mind are not set up for any carnage at the moment. As always, things could change as we go forward. Foreign markets were mixed overnight, with weakness in Asia followed by a holding pattern for Europe. Oil rose today but it didn't seem to help the US equity market. As usual we'll keep an eye on overnight developments. Patience for now but we'll look for those SPY March calls towards the end of the week if things play out accordingly.