Tuesday, February 23, 2016
Back to the downside today as the Dow fell 188 points on light volume. The advance/declines were 2 to 1 negative. The summation index is still moving up. Fears about oil and the banks resurfaced today but I don't think this is the beginning of anything meaningful lower. We were short term overbought and some pullback is expected. Perhaps it will be enough to get the SPY March calls. The S&P 500 remains in a range between 1950 and 1820 approximately. I do think that we will get through to the upside in the March option cycle. That is the idea for now. GE was off about 20 cents and the volume was light. Gold found buyers on the stock market decline as the futures rose $15. The US dollar was slightly higher. The XAU added 7/8, while GDX gained 1/3. Volume was average. I still think we need to take a rest here or at least trade sideways for a while. Gold and the gold shares remain overbought. Mentally I'm feeling OK. The advance/declines today were not as bad as a down almost 200 market would suggest. The small stocks did not have a leading roll today as well. The TRAN was not as bad as it could have been either. Putting it all together, I think that this action is simply going to relieve the overbought condition before we move higher again. It may take a few days. The ideal scenario for me would be weakness into Monday and that would be when to try the SPY March calls. So we'll see. There is no rush as option premiums are high. Foreign markets stalled as well but there is plenty of room to move to the upside on those daily charts. We'll watch the overnight developments and go from there.