Tuesday, February 09, 2016
Up and down again today as the Dow fell 12 points on good volume. The advance/declines were slightly over 2 to 1 negative. Plenty of volatility here as the market is trying to make up its mind. The summation index is heading lower. We opened down, eventually were up 100 points and then fell back to basically unchanged. We've got Yellen tomorrow and that should move things one way or the other. I did place an order for the SPY February calls but later canceled it. Tomorrow is the ideal day to get these if this trade is going to work. Any weakness tomorrow can be bought for a short term bounce trade. That is my best guess at the moment. GE was up 1/8 on light volume. No trades here for now. Gold dropped $8 on the futures despite a weaker US dollar. The XAU fell 2 1/2, while GDX shed 3/4. Volume was heavy here. Very overbought on the gold shares and due for some drop or consolidation. Mentally I'm feeling OK. Crazy market conditions right now but I do want to try the SPY February call trade tomorrow if what I perceive are the proper conditions are present. If we get down to around the 1830 level on the S&P, I'll probably give it a shot. Risk is high here and time is running out in the February option cycle. With the summation index heading down we could simply keep falling. The game is never easy. Once again, there is something going on underneath the surface. We'll find out about it eventually but the market always knows more than we do. Japan got absolutely crushed overnight and the European markets declined as well. Interesting times. We'll see how it goes tomorrow and whether I can pull off this SPY call trade or not.