Tuesday, February 16, 2016
Continuing higher after the long weekend as the Dow gained 222 points on average volume. The advance/declines were 4 to 1 positive. This should move the summation index back to the upside. Markets rallied around the globe for the past two trading sessions. The US market followed. The decline is over for now in my opinion. I did get rid of my SPY February calls today for a 95% profit. Of course I could have done even better as my exit wasn't all that good. With only three days left for the February cycle I simply got out. However I would not be surprised if we continue higher and these options gain even more. I really think that the selling is done for now. GE was up 5/8 and the volume was OK. Back into the trading range here with the boundaries consisting of the 50 and 200 day moving averages. Gold got slammed recently as the stock market slide has come to a halt. In the past two sessions the precious metal futures have lost over $40 as the US dollar has gained strength. The XAU shed 3 3/8, while GDX fell 1 2/3. Volume was heavy. The drop comes as no surprise as the technical indicators were extremely overbought and gold had started to move straight up. At a minimum we'll see consolidation here if not an outright decline. Mentally I'm a bit distracted as I had to go to the dentist again. But that can't be an excuse for my poor exit today. This trade had a terrible entry combined with a poor exit and still managed an almost 100% gain. That is why we play the game. Improvement on my part would have resulted in even more profit. Again, one of the keys is believing in your work and never giving up. Now that trade is history and we need to find the next opportunity. I'm looking at the March SPY calls since I believe that the decline has run its course. I do not think we'll simply go straight up from here but if we do get some pullback, calls are in order. Unfortunately the premiums are still pretty high with over fours weeks to go in the March option cycle. So I'll be keeping an eye on things. It is kind of a light week for economic data but we will see news on inflation. Make no mistake about the overall picture though. We'll probably see lower prices eventually as we move through the year. In Japan, the NIKK rose over 1000 points on Monday. That is incredible. However in bear markets rallies tend to spring up out of nowhere. I think Monday in Japan certainly qualifies for that. For the S&P 500, it appears the key level will be around the 1820 level. As long as that holds, we shouldn't see a major decline. But when that level is breached, you'll want to own some index puts. We'll keep an eye on things overnight and see what happens tomorrow.