Thursday, February 11, 2016
Still a crazy market as the Dow fell 254 points on heavy volume. The advance/declines were over 4 to 1 negative. The summation index continues lower. I'm still not exactly sure as to what is going on here. We did come back from the abyss when the Dow was down over 400 points. The S&P 500 is trying to hang on at around the 1820 level. If we fail here things will get out of hand rapidly. I do not think that will happen this time around but perhaps later in the year. I could be wrong. I did buy some SPY February calls today but my timing was off. They are already showing a loss. My work says tomorrow will be an upside day. We'll see. GE fell 7/8 on heavy volume. We've broken below the trading range and are now trying to hold at the 200 day moving average. If GE is any indication of things to come, the market will be in even more trouble. Gold took off like a rocket as the futures soared over $50. That is the biggest move in quite a while. I will say that it is unsustainable to say the least. But what do I know? The US dollar was lower again. The XAU rose 3 1/3, while GDX gained 1 1/4. Volume was extremely heavy. Overbought and staying that way but I still believe the gold shares and gold are overdue for a rest. The flight to gold is impressive. Mentally I'm feeling a bit tired. Yellen spoke for a couple of days but she really took a back seat to market forces. Perhaps the focus returned to oil today as it hit new recent lows. The market did have quite a bounce intra-day when it was off by 400 points. There is now a possible positive divergence on the McClellan oscillator. However unless we see some upside soon, this divergence will be negated. Interesting times. My SPY call trade is for a bounce in the next couple of sessions, if we see one. A short covering rally will do the trick. We'll have to see how traders want to be positioned before the holiday weekend. There are only five days remaining in the February option cycle. It is possible that the retail sales number tomorrow will be ignored as well. Markets are still falling around the globe. I do feel confident in my own work here though and that is why I took the risk today. But in a market environment like this, anything goes. We'll keep an eye on the overnight action and close out the trading week tomorrow.