Wednesday, February 24, 2016
A one day reversal to the upside today as the Dow opened lower and closed higher. The most watched index gained 53 points on average volume. The advance/declines were almost 2 to 1 positive. We were off over 250 early and it was quite a comeback. Needless to say this isn't the type of market action you see in a decline. The trend remains up for now. The summation index is moving higher. If you were nimble and brave enough, it looks like today was the day to purchase some March SPY calls. My ideal scenario for the timing purchase is not going to happen. GE was off 1/4 but also was much lower during the trading session. Still below the 50 day moving average here. Gold was up over $15 on the futures on the early fear factor. It dropped in the aftermarket. The US dollar bounced around but finished little changed. The XAU was up 1/2, while GDX added an 1/8 or so. Volume was pretty good. The gold shares finished well off of their highs and I still say they need to take a rest. Mentally I'm feeling OK. Volatility ruled the day but it was quite a comeback for stocks. The small stocks continue to show relative strength and that is a positive moving forward. Oil moved around again it seemed the market is once again taking its cues from the crude price. But tomorrow is another day. We're still short term overbought but trying to stay there even with yesterdays decline. I'm going to have to wait it out for a decent signal and I do not see one coming right away. We'll have to see if we get some follow through upside tomorrow. Asian shares were mixed overnight, while Europe was mostly lower. The major US stock averages are potentially building reverse head and shoulders patterns. If that is true, we could rally back up to the higher resistance at the 200 day moving averages. Hasn't happened yet but we'll have to keep an eye on it. We'll see what tomorrow brings.