Monday, February 08, 2016
Just another crazy day in the markets as the Dow fell 178 points on very heavy volume. The advance/declines were 4 to 1 negative. This should turn the summation index back lower. It could have been worse as at one point we were off 400 points. Only a last hour comeback saved the day this time. We are short term oversold on some of the indicators but not all of them. I did place an order for some SPY February calls but later canceled it. I'm looking for a bounce trade here but probably missed it today. Obviously there is something going on under the surface that I am not privy to. GE was off just over 1/3 on lighter volume. Still in a trading range here. Gold soared during the session as the futures were up over $30, which also included the aftermarket rise on Friday. The US dollar was lower today. The XAU was up 1 1/2, while GDX added 3/8. Volume was good here again. However the gold shares finished well off of their highs and it looks like this run upwards is over. I could be wrong but the technical indicators are blown out to the upside and there is only one way to go from there. Mentally I'm feeling OK. I still may try a bounce trade this week if we head back down. My guess is that we got some short covering late today. My guess is the underlying problem here for the market lies in debt. The banks are getting crushed here and I believe that they are holding a lot of what will be worthless oil and gas paper. That's my theory for today. But that doesn't explain the drop in the small stocks and the tech shares. It could be a case of selling whatever you have to meet margin calls. This is all speculation on my part. The only real question is where is the market going and how can I make some profit from it. A bit more downside would put the short term technicals in a better spot to try something long. But there is no guarantee that we just don't keep going down here either. The game is never easy. Plus we have Yellen blabbering for a couple of days on capital hill. Perhaps simply sitting things out here is a more prudent course of action. However if we do get oversold this week before Friday, I am probably going to try the SPY February calls. The European markets plunged last night and I don't see any turnaround there tonight. Parts of Asia are closed this week for a holiday but we'll see how Japan reacts overnight. We'll see what tomorrow brings.