Friday, February 12, 2016
The bounce finally arrived as the Dow rose 313 points on average volume. The advance/declines were 4 to 1 positive. The summation index is still heading lower but may be trying to turn around here. Retail sales were ignored as the stock market has a life of its own at the moment. The SPY February calls that I bought yesterday now have a slight gain. Poor entry timing on this trade is really working against me. The rally today was not exactly what I had in mind as it was orderly and not the short covering burst that I would have liked to see. I am holding this position over the long weekend. GE came back and gained over 3/4 on OK volume. We've held the 200 day moving average for now. Gold was off almost $10 on the futures while the US dollar was higher. The XAU gained 1 7/8, while GDX added 1/2. Volume was lighter than it has been. I do think that gold is going to run out of steam here. Very overbought and if the overall market starts to hold up, the reason to buy gold will evaporate. Time will tell. Mentally I'm feeling OK. One day doesn't make a trend but at least we stopped going straight down. If the positive divergence in the McClellan oscillator is for real, then the decline has ended. I do believe that is the case for now. My SPY February call trade is strictly short term and I will need to get out if we see some upside follow through on Tuesday. The short term indicators have turned up for the major stock indices. My thinking is that we will see some rally on Monday for the world markets and perhaps that will carry over into the US open on Tuesday. That is my thinking for now. Of course things could change over the weekend. I am also going to start looking out for the SPY March calls. If the summation index turns around here, the medium term picture will start to look positive as well. Hasn't happened yet but my guess is that it will. On the other hand, gold and the gold shares are due for a rest. They've had a nice run but are now getting some media exposure and that is usually a sign that the end is near. I'm not saying they won't go higher later. But right now it appears that the bulk of the gains are behind us. Plenty of time over this long weekend to check the charts and come up with some type of game plan for a shortened expiration week. 4 days to go, the risk is high and there are always other trades down the road. It's Friday afternoon and time for a break.