Thursday, February 18, 2016
A bit lower today as the Dow fell 40 points on average volume. The advance/declines were just about even. The summation index continues higher. We did break the down trend line that has been in effect since the beginning of the year this week in the S&P 500. The next expectation would be a pullback towards that line, perhaps to the 1875 level. That would give us a set up for the March calls. Of course that would be the ideal scenario and the market rarely cooperates in the trading game. We're approaching short term overbought in many of the technical indicators for the major averages. Patience for now. GE was off 1/4 and the volume was light. The 50 day moving average has contained things to the upside here for now. Gold found buyers as the futures rose almost $25. The US dollar was little changed again. The XAU gained 2 7/8, while GDX added a bit over a point. Volume was good. I still think that gold and the gold shares need a rest here. Mentally I'm feeling OK. The major US stock indices have broken their short term down trend lines. That isn't the case for the other major global stock markets. We will need to see the foreign markets climb higher if this rally in the US is going to have some legs. I do believe that will happen. But patience is advised for now as we are just about to begin the March option cycle. Anything goes tomorrow as it will be option expiration. We'll keep an eye on developments overnight and close out the trading week tomorrow.