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Friday, February 19, 2016

A day of balancing the books it seemed as the Dow fell 21 points on light volume.  The advance/declines were about even again.  The overall market was a bit stronger than the Dow.  The summation index continues higher.  We sold off early and came all the way back.  Nothing has changed my view of the overall scenario.  I still think that we're heading higher for the March option cycle.  I'll be looking for some weakness next week to attempt the SPY March calls.  GE was off a few cents and the volume was light.  The 50 day moving average continues to contain things here.  Gold was up just a bit on the futures as the US dollar was down just a bit as well.  The XAU fell a point and GDX shed 1/4.  Volume was light.  Things need to pull back or pause in the precious metals complex.  Still overbought here.  Mentally I'm feeling OK.  Not my best week of trading despite the gain in the SPY February call trade.  Moving on, I'll try and remain patient for the next set up.  I do think we're going to move up here for the major stock indices, despite the overall bearish picture.  One of my worries is that this hypothesis seems to be the general consensus among the talking heads in the financial media.  If everybody has the same point of view, you are guaranteed that it is wrong.  So we'll see.  Plenty of time for the March option cycle, so I really shouldn't be in any hurry.  I'll be checking the charts over the weekend as usual.  For now it's Friday afternoon and time for a break.   

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