Friday, April 01, 2016
It was another one day reversal to the upside as the Dow opened off over 100 points, turned around and finished with a gain of 107 points on light volume. The advance/declines were slightly negative. The summation index continues higher. There were no surprises in the employment report. Overseas markets were very weak and the Dow followed that for about half hour. But the money flowed into the US and stocks rallied for the rest of the session. Overbought, staying there and we have now gotten through what I considered important for the S&P. The longer term down trend line at 2060. The volume was weak but I cannot ignore price. My SPY April puts are now in the red. In retrospect, I should have sold them this morning. But I still can't believe that we are simply going to move higher despite the technical conditions that require some sort of multi-day pullback. GE was up 1/8 on average volume. It appears that GE is leading the way and there is no overhead resistance there. Gold fell over $10 on the futures as the US dollar finished the session little changed. The XAU and GDX had slight fractional gains on lighter volume. Mentally I'm feeling frustrated as the SPY April put trade has now moved against me. As I said yesterday it looked like things could go either way and they did both in one session. I suppose I just wasn't quick enough, again. The market looks like it will stay more overbought for a longer period of time. As foreign markets drop you would expect the US to follow suit. Instead money is finding its way over here and the rally from February continues despite the technicals. I am now getting the feeling that things will be run up again into the April expiration in two weeks. I could be wrong. The SPY April put trade is now a cut the loss proposition unless something dramatic happens at the beginning of next week. I wouldn't count on that at this rate. There should still be some beginning of the month positive money flows. I'll be checking the charts and considering what to do next over the weekend. For now it's Friday afternoon and time for a break.