Thursday, April 21, 2016
Falling from the recent highs today as the Dow dropped 113 points on average volume. The advance/declines were negative. The summation index is still moving up. The small stocks showed good relative strength so I don't think that this is the beginning of something big. But what do I know? The short term technical indicators for the major averages have rolled over but remain overbought. My thinking is that this is a pause and we will still head higher going into the end of the month. I would like to see the 2125 level on the S&P 500 before trying the SPY May puts. But the situation is fluid as always. GE dropped 1/8 or so on better volume before tomorrows earnings. Your guess is as good as mine as to what happens here tomorrow. Gold was off about $5 on the futures as the US dollar was a bit higher. The XAU rose a point and GDX added 3/8. Volume was good. Mentally I'm feeling OK. No news from the ECB today, just business as usual. Still lots of time for the May option cycle. The ideal scenario would be some type of negative divergence for the S&P 500 or the McClellan oscillator. That would give us a signal to take the short position. There is a possibility that we simply run up and blast through the overhead resistance as well. However I don't think that scenario is the most likely. With the TRAN and the NASDAQ trailing the big stocks, the picture isn't as bullish as it could be. The volume would also have to pick up on a break out and volume has been lacking lately. On the bullish side the A/D line has broken out to new all time highs. You cannot ignore that either. So as usual the trading is never easy. I'm still considering the next trade but I am leaning towards the short side. May generally shows some weakness at some point. So we'll see. Foreign markets were mixed overnight with somewhat of a bullish bias. We'll close out the week tomorrow.