Monday, April 11, 2016
It was a one day reversal to the downside as the Dow opened higher and closed lower. The most watched index fell 20 points on light volume. The advance/declines were positive though. The summation index is still moving down. The Dow was up 150 points in the morning but just like Friday, it could not hold onto the gains. The small stocks showed relative weakness throughout the session and that was a key once again in my opinion. The overall market was weaker than the Dow. My SPY April puts are back in the black after losing half of what they were worth on Fridays close. A moderate loss turned into a moderate gain. That is the volatility of having a position during expiration week. GE was off a few cents and the volume remains light here as well. Gold found buyers for whatever reason. The gold futures rose about $15 with a slight decline in the US dollar. The dollar is at support of 94 and needs to hold here or there will be a pretty good drop in my opinion. The XAU soared 4 1/2, while GDX gained 1 1/4. Volume was OK. The gold shares have broken out from the sideways congestion to the upside and appear to be on the next leg higher. Mentally I'm feeling OK. Only 4 days to go in the April option cycle so the risk is high as we saw today. Things can turn around at any time. Holding puts during the usually positive expiration week could be a recipe for disaster. That said, when the Dow is in the lead it usually isn't bullish. The short term technical indicators have rolled over for the major indices and are mid-range. So things could still go either way here despite todays price action. There are a couple negative candlesticks for the last two days on some of the charts. But we haven't broken into a down trend yet. So as usual there are plenty of questions and the April options are running out of time. We've got plenty of economic data to digest this week and it is the beginning of earnings season. Plus the Feds beige book. So it should be an interesting week. Throw in a dentists appointment tomorrow and I have my hands full at the moment. Foreign market were generally higher overnight with the exception of Japan. We'll see if they follow the US lower overnight.