Thursday, April 07, 2016
The back and forth continues as the Dow fell 174 points on light volume. The advance/declines were 3 to 1 negative. The summation index is heading lower. The short term technical indicators for the major averages have now rolled over. That doesn't mean that we're heading straight down. The small stocks continue to out perform even on the down days. That tells me that the decline probably isn't going to be drastic. It could all turn back up tomorrow, as that has been the case so far. April is still viewed as a positive month for stocks. My SPY April puts are back in the black. If we get some follow through downside tomorrow, I should probably sell the position. I can make a case to wait until Monday but the risk with only 6 days left increases with each passing day. GE was off 1/4 on average volume. Perhaps GE is telling the story after all. Although the downside in the averages we've seen so far hasn't kept up with the pace of the decline in GE. Gold rose $18 on the futures. The US dollar was slightly higher. The XAU added 1/4, while GDX gained 2/3. Volume was good to the upside. The drop in stocks probably contributed to the gains in the precious metals today. Mentally I'm feeling OK. I suppose I'm always feeling better when the trade goes my way. But you can't fall asleep at the wheel. The nature of the market lately has been a back and forth sideways routine. It is a tough trading environment. I suppose I could let the market action on Friday tell me what to do but I don't always hear what it has to say. There's room on the indicators to go lower. The summation index is dropping. The volume is low indicating lack of interest. So there are some reasons here to remain bearish. But we do have expiration week coming up with its positive market bias. The over the counter stocks are not as negative as the big caps. You would like to see the little guys leading the moves one way or the other. Plus the recent trading has been choppy and sideways. That condition could simply continue, which frustrates both the bulls and the bears. So it never is easy or just black and white in the game. Last night Europe was lower and Asia mixed. I'll keep an eye on what happens overnight and see if the downside from the US carries over. We'll close out the trading week tomorrow.