Monday, April 04, 2016
Lower to start the week as the Dow fell 55 points on light volume. The advance/declines were close to 3 to 1 negative. This should move the summation index lower. But one day doesn't make a trend. No follow through to Fridays positive action so we will have to keep an eye on things. No market moving data out this week. Perhaps the Fed minutes on Wednesday will provide some trading fodder. My SPY April puts are still in the red but did gain a little ground today. GE fell about 3/4 on good volume. It was downgraded by the street today. Perhaps GE will lead the way down as it just led the way up. But that's a guess on my part. Gold fell around $5 on the futures and the US dollar was off just a touch. The XAU lost 2 points, while GDX dropped 5/8 on average volume. Sideways on the gold shares for about a month now. Mentally I'm feeling OK. Light volume means no interest, so perhaps we can see a multi-day decline for a change and I can dump my SPY April puts. Of course the market never listens to me. The TRAN is trying to hold its 200 day average here. It too was a leader on the way up and perhaps now can reverse that role. The short term technical indicators for the major stock averages remain overbought. The small stocks held up rather well today and there cannot be any meaningful decline when the over the counter issues are holding up. Perhaps we will simply remain overbought into the expiration next week. As always the market will go where it wants. Some foreign exchanges were closed overnight but the rest were generally higher. NIKK stopped going down. We'll see what tomorrow brings.