Friday, April 15, 2016
Just a bit of downside today as the Dow fell 29 points on light volume. The advance/declines were slightly positive. The summation index continues higher. We are overbought on the short term indicators. However there is a potential negative divergence in the daily RSI for the S&P 500. We will have to see if it pans out. On a medium term basis, some of the indicators are over extended but others not so much. It is going to take a lot more volume to get through the 2100 and 2125 levels on the S&P with some conviction. It's possible that could happen but it will have to get going soon. We are approaching the sell in May and go away time period. GE was flat and the volume remains light. Perhaps I'll attempt a trade here before the earnings numbers next week. The more prudent course of action would be to wait for a signal though. Gold was up almost $10 on the futures as the US dollar was lower. The XAU rose 2 points, while GDX gained almost 2/3. Volume was lighter than it's been. Mentally I'm feeling not 100%. Some kind of hay fever or something. I don't know, I've never had it before but my mind is foggy. We'll roll into the May option cycle Monday. My confidence is down after the latest failed trade and that is never a good thing. But you've got to move on. The markets move along and we traders must do the same. Plenty of earnings in the next few weeks and that will probably tell the story for the overall market. The recent relationship with the price of oil and the Dow may have run its course. At this point I really do not have a solid game plan going forward. I suppose that the best idea would be to wait for a decent signal again and see if I can execute it properly next time around. There is no hurry at this point to do anything. Option premiums will be high. It is most likely time to sit back and wait for the next perceived opportunity. I'll be checking the charts this weekend as usual. For now it's Friday afternoon and time for a rest.