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Monday, April 18, 2016

Up we go as the Dow gained 106 points on light volume.  The advance/declines were almost 3 to 1 positive.  The summation index is still moving up.  We opened lower and closed higher for a one day reversal to the upside.  The drop in oil did not affect the US market as it did the Asian exchanges.  We still have to get through the 2100 and 2125 levels on the S&P 500 to get the all clear.  The NASDAQ is lagging here and the volume is light.  Let's just say that I'm not convinced that we are going to break out to the upside immediately.  I do not trust light volume rallies.  GE was up 3 cents on light volume.  Waiting on earnings Friday.  I'm probably not going to try any trades here but you never know.  Gold was little changed despite a drop in the US dollar.  The XAU was up 1/2 and GDX was flat.  Volume was very light.  Gold should probably move sideways before the next move either way.  That's a guess as usual.  Mentally I'm feeling OK.  Not much economic data due this week.  We will get an ECB statement later in the week.  The short term technical indicators remain overbought for the major averages.  We had a consolidation in price last week and we have now broken out to the top.  The problem here is that the volume is lacking.  I know I have said this repeatedly but it is important.  So we'll see what happens.  The weekly chart for the Dow has moved straight up and that will not last.  Even if the Dow was to hit a new all time high in the next few weeks it would not be confirmed by the TRAN.  The TRAN is well off of its all time high.  What I'm saying is not to trust this rally and be prepared to get short or buy some puts in the near future.  Europe was higher last night as it mimicked the Dow turnaround.  We'll keep an eye on the overnight action and go from there.

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