Thursday, April 28, 2016
To the downside today as the Dow fell 210 points on better volume. The advance/declines were 2 to 1 negative. The summation index may be moving sideways now. GDP was a little light and Japan didn't add more stimulus. However even though we sold off early, the market did make it all the way into positive territory. The final couple hours saw the market fall off a cliff. The advance/declines didn't support such a big drop today. I must admit that we are in a spot where I don't have a firm grasp as to what is going on. The short term technical indicators have now rolled over for the major indices. The small caps are already oversold. I'm inclined to believe that rallies can be shorted now. My ideal scenario for buying the SPY May puts does not look like it will happen. GE was off few cents and the volume was light. Gold was up $17 on the futures as the US dollar broke through the important 94 level. The XAU rose 3 1/3, while GDX gained a point. Volume was heavy. If the dollar continues to fall here it would be a positive for gold. Gold hasn't broken out of its congestion zone yet though. Mentally I'm feeling OK. I'm not sure this is the beginning of the down trend that I'm looking for but it could be. Some of my short term indicators will be oversold already. Perhaps today was some end of the month selling. If so we should see some more tomorrow. Not exactly knowing what is going on here doesn't exactly inspire any confidence in trading it. I'll probably let tomorrow go by and try and regroup over the weekend. If the US dollar does continue to drop, that would be a positive for stocks in my mind. But I cannot rule out a multi-week decline as we are almost in the month of May which usually isn't a good one for stocks historically. Foreign stocks were mixed with Asia falling from their highs and Europe coming back off of their lows. We'll see if we get some downside follow through as we close out the month tomorrow.