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Monday, April 25, 2016

A quiet start to the week as the Dow fell 26 points on light volume.  The advance/declines were 2 to 1 negative.  This could turn the summation index sideways.  Waiting on the Fed here basically.  I think that we are going to move up this week after the Fed.  Ideally I'd like to see us move towards new all time highs on light volume.  That would potentially set up the SPY May put trade.  Of course there's always the chance for a break out to the upside as well.  However we would have to see the volume pick up on any breakout.  GE lost a few cents on average volume.  Holding the 50 day moving average here so far.  No trades planned for GE at the moment.  Gold gained about $10 on the futures as the US dollar was lower.  The gold shares didn't follow as the XAU shed 3/4 and GDX was off 1/8.  Volume was pretty light though.  I don't have any trades in the pipeline here either.  Mentally I'm feeling OK.  The technical indicators have rolled over for the small stocks to a larger extent than the big caps.  However it does look like things could turn back up here.  That is a really short term view of things right now.  The Bollinger bands on some of the small stock indices are contracting.  This implies a pretty good move one way or the other.  Which way and how soon are the questions.  There is plenty of time in the May option cycle to put on a trade.  I think that I will let the Fed and the GDP report pass before trying something but my thoughts could change on that.  I do think that waiting to buy some index puts is the right move for now.  Foreign stocks were weak overnight but not excessively so.  We'll keep an eye on the overnight developments.   

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