Wednesday, April 27, 2016
The Dow gained 51 points today on better volume than we've seen lately. The advance/declines were 2 to 1 positive. The summation index is heading higher. The Fed came out with no change in interest rates. The rest of what they had to say can be interpreted either way depending on if you're bullish or bearish. The overall market was weaker than the Dow. That has been the case for a while. The news on earnings was negative and there was every reason for some kind of sell off. The market has been resilient despite poor numbers. This says that prices will go higher. The small stocks have been relatively weaker and that should eventually lead to a decline. But I do think we'll go up in the near term. GE was basically flat on light volume. Gold was up a few bucks on the futures as the US dollar was a bit lower. The XAU rose 1 1/3, while GDX added 1/4. Volume was lighter than average. Mentally I'm feeling OK. We'll get the 1st quarter GDP report tomorrow morning and that should get things moving either way. The small stocks are certainly oversold here and a bounce there could be coming. The advance/decline line for stocks continues to make new highs and that is bullish. However on the weekly small stock charts, some of them are showing potential head and shoulders tops. Theses haven't been confirmed yet but it is something to keep an eye on. Also big cap leadership is a late stage bull market symptom, not something that usually leads to a strong leg up. So the signals all around are somewhat mixed. I'll make the case for some more upside near term followed by a decline. If we can get to new all time highs or near there on the S&P 500 with light volume, that will be what we are looking for to purchase the SPY May puts. That's the scenario that I'm waiting for. We will just have to wait and see if that happens in the next few days. Foreign markets were mixed with Asia lower and Europe higher. We'll see how the markets react to the GDP number tomorrow.