Drifting lower in an aimless market to close out the year.  The Dow fell 57 points on the usual light volume we've been seeing in this shortened week.  The advance/declines were negative.  We're short term oversold for some of the technical indicators.  It looks like I was a day early for the SPY January calls.  Or perhaps my take on things here is simply wrong.  That trade is now in the red.  What I thought was a consolidation isn't after todays price action.  Things will need to be reversed to the upside in a hurry or this trade is dead.  There is no support to speak of in the S&P 500 until we get to 2210.  GE was off 1/8 and the volume remains light.  Gold dropped $7 on the futures despite a weaker US dollar.  The XAU was off over 3 points and GDX shed 7/8.  Volume was good.  The fundamentals remain bearish for gold.  Mentally I'm feeling OK.  Volatility appears to be short term overbought now and that could lead to some positive price action for stocks at the beginning of the new year.  Maybe.  I also could be reading everything wrong here but some of the indicators that I use show at least some kind of bounce happening soon.  I do think that it could be more than that.  I'm still thinking that 20000 will be reached early in 2017.  The trading was thin in the past week and we could have just seen a downside skew because of that.  But who knows?  We'll find out more next week when all the players return.  My SPY January call trade is now in the red but there is plenty of time left in the January option cycle.  I'll look things over again this extended holiday weekend.  For now it's the final Friday afternoon of 2016 and time for a rest.  Happy and healthy New Year to everyone.

Lackluster is the best way to describe todays market as the Dow fell 13 points on very light volume.  The advance/declines were positive.  The summation index did turn lower yesterday but the action there is better described as sideways for now.  Not a lot of players and not a lot to write about either.  There was some weakness about halfway through the session and I did purchase some SPY January calls.  They are slightly in the black.  This should be a less than 2 week trade time wise.  If and when we move back to short term overbought, that will be the time to exit.  I still think that we'll see Dow 20000 early in the new year.  GE moved up a couple pennies and the volume remains very light.  Gold found some interest on a lower US dollar.  The futures rose $15.  The XAU climbed 4 3/4, while GDX added 1 1/2.  Volume was average.  The gold shares remain in a downward channel but are trying to break it.  Mentally I'm feeling OK.  Just a day to go in 2016 and we will probably end on a quiet note.  I expect even less traders tomorrow as we approach another long holiday weekend.  Things should get going again on Tuesday.  I'm expecting this SPY call trade to work out but the market will go where it wants.  I still view the past couple of weeks as a consolidation and not a top.  I could be wrong.  So we'll see what happens.  Europe and Asia were generally weaker overnight.  We'll finish up the week and the year on Friday.

Well I thought things would be quiet but that was not the case today.  The Dow fell 111 points on very light volume.  The advance/declines were better than 2 to 1 negative.  This could turn the summation index lower.  The short term technical indicators for the major averages have now rolled over.  I do not think that this is the start of something big to the downside.  In fact I think that any weakness tomorrow can be bought.  The lack of volume tends to skew things each way.  Although I thought the next trade would be in the new year, I'll be looking to purchase the SPY January calls tomorrow.  I may be early on this trade but one of my short term tools is oversold at this point.  GE fell almost 1/4 and the volume was light.  Still short term overbought here.  Gold and the US dollar were slightly higher.  The XAU added 1 1/3, while GDX was up 1/3.  Volume was average.  Gold and the gold shares remain in a down trend.  Mentally I'm feeling OK.  Volatility picked up today but it was nothing drastic.  I think we are simply in a light volume void with the major players either out or on the sidelines.  Only 2 trading days left in 2016.  I did not expect todays drop but I really don't think we'll see a repeat tomorrow.  Of course I could be wrong.  One of the issues here is that there is really no support under the Dow and S&P 500 at these levels.  That said, I think what we've seen in the past couple of weeks is a consolidation from the recent run up.  Even if I'm a bit early in this trade, there will be plenty of time for it to work out.  I will re-check everything tonight but I'm pretty sure that if we see lower prices tomorrow, I'll be buying the SPY calls.  Europe and Asia were mixed last night showing little price change with the exception of a rise in the Hang Seng.  We'll keep an eye on the overnight developments and get ready for tomorrow morning. 

Back to work for some as the Dow rose 11 points on extremely light volume.  The advance/declines were positive.  The summation index is trying to move higher.  Still plenty of players on vacation as we look to close out the trading year of 2016.  Nothing has changed as the major stock indexes remain short term overbought.  I'm still waiting for some kind of pullback to get long the SPY January calls.  A short trading week upon us but there is still plenty of time in the January option cycle to make something happen.  GE up a couple pennies on very light volume.  Gold was up $6 on the futures but was higher during the day.  The US dollar barely moved.  The XAU rose 1 3/4, while GDX gained 1/2.  Volume was light.  Mentally I'm feeling OK.  The market took off in the first half hour and steadily eroded from there.  I'm not sure what to make of that but we are in a very thinly traded environment.  Probably the best thing to do here is let this week pass and take it from there.  We should get a bump up in the beginning of the year due to seasonal money flows.  However we all know what happened at the beginning of last year.  So we'll wait for some kind of signal and take it from there.  The market will not remain overbought forever.  Europe was generally higher and Asia generally lower overnight but both suffered from the same lack of interest as seen in the US today.  Perhaps this will be a boring week.  We'll see if we get some more players back tomorrow.

Not much today as expected.  The Dow rose 14 points on extremely light volume.  The advance/declines were positive.  The summation index is starting to go sideways again.  It's holiday time and the stock market doesn't matter for a few days.  I'm hoping for a Christmas present of a chance to get the SPY January calls.  GE was up a nickel with the same lack of volume.  Gold rose a couple bucks and the US dollar was a touch weaker.  The XAU and GDX rose on anemic volume.  Mentally I'm feeling OK.  No real interest in stocks this week which was a bit of surprise to me.  I thought that maybe we'd get to 20000, given the positive seasonal factors.  Perhaps next week.  We're still short term overbought on the major stock indices any way you look at it.  The market takes Monday off for Christmas.  I suppose I don't expect much movement next week as well but you never know.  I'll be looking for clues over the next few days.  For now 's Friday afternoon and time for a rest.  Merry Christmas and Happy Holidays to all. 

Another pause in the climb to 20000 as the Dow fell 23 points on light volume.  The advance/declines were negative.  The overall market was weaker than the Dow.  The summation index is still moving higher.  The economic data came in about where expected.  We still remain overbought on the short term technical indicators for the major indices.  We've been going sideways now for a couple of weeks but remain in a very positive seasonal time period.  I do believe that this will eventually take us to the 20000 promised land.  The light volume indicates that a lot of the players are gone for the holidays early.  We'll need to see a return of better volume to hit the milestone.  GE was off a few cents and the volume was light.  Gold lost a couple bucks and the US dollar finished barely higher.  The XAU and GDX were slightly lower.  Volume was almost average.  Mentally I'm feeling OK.  Not much else to say with the long holiday weekend almost upon us.  I would expect tomorrow to be a very light volume levitation as it should be pretty quiet.  I am still looking at the SPY January calls but the premiums remain expanded due to the time factor.  Perhaps I'll get a shot at them next week.  I do not think that things are rolling over here but I've been wrong before.  Asia was lower and Europe mixed overnight.  However the moves were once again muted as there aren't any players to drive the volume.  We'll finish out the week most likely quietly tomorrow.

A bump in the road on the way to Dow 20000 as the most watched index shed 32 points on very light volume.  The advance/declines were slightly negative.  The summation index is moving up.  Not to worry here as we are in the very favorable seasonal time period.  Plenty of economic data due tomorrow and that should propel us the promised land.  That's my best guess for today.  Not a lot of players here today and that may be the case for the rest of the year.  Still overbought for the major stock indices and that hasn't changed for weeks.  I am looking at the January SPY calls but cannot purchase them unless we see some downside to relieve the overbought condition.  Doubtful.  GE was off 1/8 and the volume was light.  Gold was little changed and the US dollar was a bit lower.  The XAU and GDX had very slight fractional losses on extremely light volume.  Apparently nobody felt like buying or selling today.  Mentally I'm feeling OK.  Two days to go before a long holiday weekend and todays lack of activity tells me that perhaps traders have already packed it in for the week.  This really isn't the kind of market that you like to trade as it is listless at the moment.  Tomorrow could bring the awaited 20000 but it probably won't have much volume behind it.  I'd prefer to see some weakness to get long but it isn't that time of year.  Perhaps if we run to 20000, I can start to look the other way.  But let's not get ahead of ourselves.  More likely it is a time to be patient.  Asia was mixed and Europe higher but the moves were slight either way.  We'll watch the world overnight and see how things go tomorrow.

The march to Dow 20000 continues as it rose 91 points today on light volume.  The advance/declines were almost 2 to 1 positive.  The summation index is tending higher.  Just 25 points away from that magic number and we should make it tomorrow or at least before the end of the week.  Still overbought any way you look at it but it doesn't matter.  What will happen when we get there?  Probably just more buying as nobody is doing any selling with the promise of lower tax rates next year.  The lighter volume as we go higher here is a concern but it is holiday time.  It appears that any option trade to the upside will not happen at this rate.  GE was up 1/3 and the volume remains good.  Overbought here as well.  Gold was flat on the futures session, with the US dollar up just a bit.  The XAU and GDX had slight fractional moves up on light volume.  Certainly no interest in buying gold or the gold shares here.  Mentally I'm feeling OK.  It looks like we're in the holiday period run up for stocks.  No overhead resistance and the technical indicators remain overbought.  I suppose we'll just have to see how high this thing can go.  Usually higher than you think.  No real pullback opportunities to get the SPY January calls.  The high option premiums are also a factor in not just buying something to get in there.  I'm keeping an eye on the daily RSI indicators for the RUT and S&P 500.  If we do get higher highs in the indexes with lower RSI readings, that would be a negative divergence that I'm looking for.  Hasn't happened yet and this is really a bullish time of year.  I'd rather see some selling to get long.  Asia was mixed and Europe higher in the overnight session.  We'll see if they break out the Dow 20000 hats out on Wall street tomorrow.

It feels like the holidays already as the Dow gained 39 points on light volume.  The advance/declines were positive.  The summation index is starting to head back up from a short sideways position.  We began the day higher and went sideways after that.  Plenty of economic data on the 22nd and perhaps that will get us going.  Still short term overbought for the main indices.  I'd like to see some pullback to get the SPY January calls but that is wishful thinking.  GE was up over 1/8 on OK volume.  Gold was up a few bucks on the futures as the US dollar was higher.  The XAU and GDX barely moved.  Volume was light.  I don't see any sustained upside for this group anytime soon.  Mentally I'm feeling a bit tired, did not sleep well.  Overbought has been the theme for weeks now as the rally has taken a multi-day breather.  We're in a good seasonal time frame for stocks, so I'm not looking at the puts now.  That will be something for next year.  The extra week in the January option cycle keeps the premiums above average for now.  There's no rush to trade at the moment.  Volatility has shrunk and Dow 20000 before the end of the year still seems likely to me.  Patience is the way to go for now.  Asia was lower and Europe mixed overnight.  We'll watch what happens in the after hours.

We had a one day reversal to the downside today as we opened higher and closed lower.  The Dow only fell 8 points though on very heavy expiration related volume.  The advance/declines were positive.  The summation index has begun to move sideways.  The overall market was weaker than the Dow.  Still short term overbought for the big cap major stock indices.  We are moving into a very favorable seasonal time frame for stocks, so I do not see any major decline coming up anytime soon.  If we can at least get the technical indicators to get back to mid-range, perhaps there will be an opportunity to purchase some SPY January calls.  Hasn't happened yet.  GE had some positive news and was up 1/2 on very good volume.  The precursor theory that I mentioned yesterday is now thrown out the window.  Gold rose $5 as the US dollar was a bit weaker for a change.  The XAU and GDX were mixed with very slight fractional moves.  Volume was good.  Mentally I'm feeling OK.  Only two weeks left in 2016.  I'd expect the rally to continue.  Most normal trading will take place next week and then we're into holiday mode for the rest of the year.  I do expect the Dow to get to 20000 before the end of the year.  But right now it is a matter of waiting for an opportunity to get the SPY January calls as the next trade.  There is not rush because this option cycle has 5 weeks instead of the normal 4.  Also at the moment I do not see any positive or negative divergences on the technical indicators that I follow.  But there will be plenty of time over the weekend to check on that.  We once again saw the Dow have better relative performance on the week than the other major averages.  As I've said before, this is generally a late stage of the rally occurrence in a longer time frame.  We'll just have to see how far that it can go.  Until we some negative divergences on the weekly charts, the trend remains up regardless.  So we'll do the homework over the weekend and see where that leads us.  For now it's Friday afternoon and time for a rest.

Back up today as the Dow rose 59 points on good volume.  The advance/declines were positive.  The summation index stalled yesterday but should be heading back up today.  The overall market acted better than the Dow.  We were about 100 points higher than the close early on.  However it is expiration week and there is plenty going on behind the scenes.  That fact could skew things tomorrow as it will be a quarterly settlement as well.  We're still pretty much short term overbought after a brief pause yesterday.  I think that we've got a shot at 20000 next week or before the end of the year due to the extremely positive seasonality.  I could be wrong.  GE was off another 1/4 and the volume was good.  If GE is again a precursor of things to come, then perhaps 20000 will have to wait.  We'll see.  Gold got crushed again as the futures were off by about 35 bucks.  The US dollar continues to forge ahead to new highs for the year.  There is nothing in the near term to stop the dollars climb.  The XAU lost 3 1/3, while GDX dropped over 3/4.  Volume was heavy again.  There is no love for gold and the gold shares.  That story has no ending at the moment.  Mentally I'm feeling OK.  I'm still considering the SPY January calls but at the rate things are going, there won't be a decent entry point.  I may have to wait things out and then look to the other side of that trade.  If a negative divergence would pop up here soon, perhaps the SPY puts would be in order.  But it is hard to fight the rally that we've seen here lately.  Money continues to flow into US stocks and that should continue in the beginning of the new year.  Another thing to consider is the extra week during the January option cycle.  Premiums remain high and there isn't a rush to put on a trade, all things considered.  So I'll try to remain patient as usual and look for a good set up.  Asia was mostly lower and Europe higher overnight.  We'll close out the week tomorrow.

Dow 20000 was put on hold today as the most watched index fell 118 points on good volume.  The advance/declines were 4 to 1 negative.  This could put a stop to the summation index moving up.  We can blame the Fed as it signaled more rate hikes to come following todays anticipated move up.  I don't know if this means that the rally is over but perhaps a long overdue pause is beginning to shape up.  One day doesn't make a trend though and we are moving into a very favorable seasonal period for stocks.  I'm still looking out for the SPY January calls.  GE was off 1/4 on heavy volume.  Gold got pummeled by $13 on the futures.  The US dollar broke out to a new recovery high for the year.  The XAU lost 4 1/4, while GDX shed 1 1/8.  Volume was heavy.  Gold is oversold and staying there as the fundamental picture here remains bearish.  Mentally I'm feeling OK.  Everybody was looking for a rise in rates and the market sold off anyway.  I don't think that it's the beginning of a substantial decline.  But I've been wrong often enough before.  Perhaps we can get to an oversold short term technical condition to try those January calls.  We will simply have to wait and see how the next few days play out.  Only a couple of days here for the December option cycle.  There is plenty of time in my mind to look out to January because there is an extra week in the January option cycle.  The short term technical indicators for the major indices have at least rolled over now.  I do still think that the market will run this thing up to the 20000 level for the Dow between now and the January expiration.  I'll simply be looking for an entry point for the SPY calls.  Unless we completely unravel here and I don't expect that.  The recent poor breadth was a warning for something like today.  Whether or not it lasts is the next question.  Europe was lower and Asia mixed last night.  We'll keep an eye on the overnight developments.

Moving right along as the Dow gained 114 points on average volume.  The advance/declines were positive.  The summation index is moving up.  There seems to be no stopping this market.  The technical indicators have been thrown out the window.  We are in a momentum based run higher.  Overbought, staying there and I have written that statement for weeks.  I don't know how long it lasts or what happens when it ends.  My guess is that it won't be pretty but we can enjoy things for now.  Inflation and retail sales data out tomorrow but all ears will be on the Fed statement.  An interest rate rise is already baked into the cake.  GE was off 1/8 and the volume was average.  Gold was down $5 on the futures and the US dollar was a bit higher.  The XAU and GDX had fractional gains.  Volume there was a bit light.  Mentally I'm feeling OK.  No SPY December put trade for me as I cannot step in front of this freight train higher.  I suppose that I'll look out to the January calls if we see some weakness.  But at this rate, selling stocks seems to be a thing of the past.  Interesting times.  I can make a case for this being the 5th leg and final move higher from the lows of 2009 in a 1 through 5 event.  But the last move up can on for quite some time.  That's a guess as usual.  Plus my count and interpretation of things could be wrong.  In the near term you cannot fight the trend up.  Perhaps we'll just keep moving higher into the expiration.  However the weaker breadth moving up shouldn't be ignored.  Eventually the severe overbought technical conditions will come into play.  I just don't know when and will not try and guess the timing.  We'll look for some type of negative divergence before attempting any kind of put trade or short.  Europe and Asia were higher overnight.  We'll see what the Fed has to say on Wednesday and if that propels the Dow to the 20000 level.

The Dow keeps rolling along as it added 39 points today on good volume.  The advance/declines were almost 2 to 1 negative though.  The summation index is still moving up.  The overall market was weaker than the Dow.  That's 2 days in a row of weak internals but the Dow moving up anyway.  That kind of technical action is at least a warning that things could change.  All the short term indicators remain overbought.  I am looking at a short term trade for the SPY December puts but no valid set up has appeared.  With only 4 days to go in the December option cycle, doing this trade would be fraught with risk.  GE gained a few cents on average volume.  Gold finished flat on the session but did come up off of the lows.  The US dollar was weaker today.  The XAU and GDX had very slight fractional gains on average volume.  Mentally I'm feeling OK.  We've got plenty of economic data out this week plus the Fed.  Throw in option expiration and I think we should see some volatility.  The major stock indices remain very overbought despite todays pause for most.  The small stocks got hit today and they can be leaders.  That said, any trade of the SPY puts would have to be a very short term deal.  Not exactly my specialty.  But I'll have to see how things go tomorrow.  Perhaps the wiser idea would be to go out to the SPY January calls.  If we did get some selling this week perhaps that will set up.  For the moment the rally remains intact but the negative breadth is a warning sign.  Europe and Asia were mixed overnight, though Hong Kong had a decent drop.  We'll keep an eye on the overnight developments.

I suppose at this point we can just start calling this a melt-up.  The Dow rose 142 points on good volume.  The advance/declines were barely negative.  The summation index is moving up.  No explanation to this type of price action.  Dow up 142 and the breadth is negative?  Go figure.  Extremely overbought in the near term and still moving higher?  I appears that a run up into the expiration next Friday certainly isn't out of the question.  Hard to attempt a trade when the technical indicators aren't working.  I'm still thinking about the SPY December puts for a short term trade but there is no divergences yet.  It's probably best to just let the December option cycle go by and look to the January calls.  GE was up 1/4 on lighter volume.  Gold dropped a dozen on the futures as the US dollar continues its climb.  The XAU fell 2 1/2, while GDX shed 3/4.  Volume was good.  No positive signs for gold.  Mentally I'm feeling OK.  The rally is overextended by any stretch of the imagination or measurement.  The trouble is that there is no telling just how far up this thing can go.  It defies the normal technical indications to the upside just as it sometimes does on the downside.  So it is hard to say when it will end.  When the indicators stay overbought or oversold for days and weeks, they are of no use.  It simply isn't the normal market environment.  It's tough to trade.  At this rate you could just buy some SPY calls and hope that it continues to go up.  That really isn't a market strategy.  What I will do over the weekend is go over the charts once again and try to figure something out.  It may be dangerous to try and buy the SPY puts next week because that idea just isn't working for those who've tried recently.  However I do think that at some point next week it will.  It is a historically weak time period for the market and perhaps the Fed tightening will bring some sellers.  They have been absent for weeks.  But I'll have to peruse the charts first.  For now it's Friday afternoon and time for a break.

The beat goes on as the Dow added 65 points on good volume.  The advance/declines were positive.  The summation index continues higher.  At this point you have to begin to wonder just how long this will continue.  All the short term technical indicators are very overbought without any relief.  Plus they have stayed that way for weeks.  It's as if the indicators don't matter anymore.  It is simply buy, buy, buy.  Day after day.  Perhaps we'll just keep running up into the option expiration but that isn't until next week.  I'd like to try the SPY December puts for a short term trade but at this rate, there is no way to find the proper entry point.  GE was off a few cents and the volume was average.  Gold was flat on the futures despite a decent gain for the US dollar.  The XAU and GDX were flat on very light volume.  Mentally I'm feeling OK.  The ECB extended its bond purchase program but at a lower rate.  The stock market shrugged.  It is a runaway freight train for US stocks at the moment.  No sellers or overhead resistance.  I certainly don't know how long this will last.  The VIX has risen the past couple of days but stocks have surged anyway.  Part of me wants to just get some SPY calls but there is no technical justification to do so right now.  I can make a case for the SPY puts but only if we get some kind of negative divergence in the indicators.  Hasn't happened yet.  So patience is advised for now.  Europe and Asia were generally higher overnight.  We'll finish out the week tomorrow.

Powering to the upside as the Dow climbed 297 points on heavy volume.  The advance/declines were a bit over 3 to 1 positive.  The summation index is moving higher.  Overbought, staying there and there is no overhead resistance.  Sellers are gone.  I did not get any of the SPY December calls but that idea was valid.  I've asked myself how long can this go on and I guess the answer is longer than you think.  I'm looking for the next trade and perhaps the SPY December puts might be in order for a short term trade on a valid signal.  However the primary trend is up and it usually doesn't pay to go against that.  GE was higher by 3/8 on average volume.  Gold rose $5 on the futures as the US dollar was lower.  The XAU and GDX had slight fractional gains on weak volume.  The fundamentals remain bearish for gold.  Mentally I'm feeling OK.  Quite a run we've had since the election and it appears there is no stopping this bull move.  We'll see profit taking at some point but I do not look for an extended downturn anytime soon.  The latter half of December is generally bullish for stocks.  I will look for a short term top next week and perhaps trade it if we get some kind of negative divergence.  However it is possible that the more prudent trade would be to go out to the SPY January calls.  I do somewhat lament not being able to profit from the current move.  But at least the hypothesis of the market was correct and having a handle on things plays out to the positive in the long run.  Seven days left in the December option cycle.  I have to say after today that the prices are so overextended, some type of consolidation is necessary.  A pause is due and sooner rather than later.  I'll be looking for a short term signal to try the SPY December puts between now and expiration on the 16th.  Europe and Asia were both higher again overnight as money pours into stocks around the world.  We've got the ECB to deal with tomorrow but I don't expect any surprises.  We'll keep an eye on the overnight action.

A drift higher today as the Dow was up 35 points on good volume.  The advance/declines were better than 2 to 1 positive.  The summation index is moving up.  The overall market was stronger than the Dow again and that's bullish.  We're going higher and there isn't anything that I can see on the horizon to derail this trend.  There are no sellers for now.  It does not appear that the SPY December call trade will happen.  I can only remain patient and look for the next opportunity.  Running out of time in the December option cycle and then we have the holidays to contend with.  I suppose that I'll be trying to get long at some point.  GE was up a few cents on pretty light volume.  Still more overbought than oversold here.  Gold was off $6 again on the futures as the US dollar bounced back.  The XAU and GDX had slight fractional losses on extremely light volume.  Mentally I'm feeling OK.  Not much else to report as we continue to move up.  The Dow and the TRAN have remained short term overbought for weeks.  It's hard to trade against that trend.  Major stock indices are moving above near term resistance, so there is no telling how long this will go on.  It has already lasted much longer than normal.  We never did get back to mid-range on the technical indicators for the S&P but we did have a slight decline and now have moved up off of that.  All I can do is wait for some better downside before trying the SPY calls again.  But it really doesn't look like that will occur.  Perhaps there will be a short term trade to try around the Fed meeting but that's not until next week.  Plus I'm not that good at the short term trades.  So it remains a watch and wait time for me.  Europe and Asia were higher overnight.  We'll see what tomorrow brings.

There was a gap up at the open and we never looked back as the Dow gained 46 points on good volume.  The advance/declines were better than 2 to 1 positive.  This should move the summation index back up.  The overall market was stronger than the Dow.  There was no opportunity to purchase the SPY December calls.  Only weakness in the coming days will save doing this idea but that is unlikely.  The timing would have to be near perfect as well since we are running out of time in the December option cycle.  My guess is that we will continue to move higher from here.  The vote in Italy turned out to be a non event for the market.  GE was off 1/4 and the volume was light.  Gold was off about $6 on the futures despite some weakness in the US dollar.  The XAU added 1/2, while GDX was flat.  Volume was to the light side.  Mentally I'm feeling OK.  The only way to try the SPY December calls from here would to see some decline tomorrow or Wednesday.  The timing would have to be spot on.  We are in the zone where the time premium gets sucked out of the options at a significant rate.  That is hard to overcome if the entry isn't good.  You simply don't have time to let the trade work itself out.  I'm still a believer in higher prices going forward.  So we are simply going to have to wait and see if the next couple of sessions play out in our favor.  If not, it's on to the next thing, whatever that trade may be.  Asia was lower and Europe higher overnight.  There isn't a lot of economic data to trade off of this week.  We'll stick with the technicals and keep an eye on things tonight.

It was kind of a wait and see type of market today despite the employment report.  The Dow dropped 21 points on average volume.  The advance/declines were positive and the overall market was a bit stronger than the Dow.  The summation index is moving sideways for now.  The jobs report was pretty much in line with expectations and we got a small rally from that.  But there's really no conviction either way for stocks at the moment.  I think that we're waiting for the referendum vote out of Italy on Sunday before we get going anywhere.  I did place an order for the SPY December calls but it wasn't filled.  I'll try again on Monday if I get the chance.  GE was off a nickel and the volume was light.  Gold found some buyers on Italy angst and the futures rose almost ten bucks on the futures.  The US dollar was a bit lower.  The XAU went up 3 points, while GDX added 3/4.  Volume was good.  Mentally I'm feeling a bit tired.  I still think that we go higher from here and will be once again look to buy weakness on Monday.  The S&P 500 has come off of its highs and is short term oversold on one of my indicators.  We aren't even mid-range yet on most of the technical indicators here but if we get an Italy led sell off on Monday we'll be there.  That would be the ideal scenario for my case to purchase the SPY December calls.  Weakness Monday morning would be all I need to see.  However we could simply rally at the open as well.  Like I said before it is a wait and see game at this point.  I do still like the idea that price and volume lead the way.  I'm looking for new all time highs again before the year is out for the S&P.  All there is to do now is go over the charts this weekend, monitor the vote in Italy and the market reaction on Sunday night.  For now it's Friday afternoon in December and time for a break.

A mixed bag once again as the Dow rose 68 points on very heavy volume to begin the month of December.  The advance/declines were negative and the overall market was much weaker than the Dow.  This is a trend that is not positive.  The summation index may start to move sideways after todays price action.  The big caps leading the way is not the most bullish of scenarios.  I'm still looking at the SPY December calls though as we are getting to mid-range on the short term indicators.  If the rally is for real and I do believe that it is, then buying any weakness tomorrow should work out for that trade.  That is my game plan right here.  If we see weakness after the employment report, I'll be purchasing the calls.  GE was up almost 2/3 on good volume.  There is now a bullish engulfing pattern on the GE daily candlestick chart.  Gold was flat on the session but did come up off of its lows.  The US dollar fell for a change today.  The XAU and GDX had fractional losses on average volume.  Mentally I'm feeling a bit tired.  The recent drop this week in the small caps could prove ominous if it continues.  However I still think that a move back to the 2180 level in the S&P 500 would be an opportunity to get long for the December option cycle.  Perhaps my thinking is wrong here but that is the trade that I'm looking at.  Of course the market could just start to head higher at the open and that would probably doom the trade.  So we'll have to keep an eye on what happens tomorrow morning.  Asia was higher and Europe lower overnight.  Interest rates have risen dramatically since the election and the stock market hasn't really paid much attention.  At some point it will and then there will be trouble for the bulls.  It has been said that the money from selling bonds is going into stocks.  Some of that is probably true but when only a few Dow stocks are going up vs. the rest of the market, there isn't the wholesale buying that you should see from such an occurrence.  I don't normally talk about interest rates but they do effect the stock market at times.  Sooner or in this case later, higher rates will take their toll on the market.  They're having little effect at the moment.  Asia was higher and Europe lower overnight.  We'll see what happens with the jobs numbers tomorrow and the markets reaction to them.

We finished the last session of the month mixed as the Dow added 2 points on very heavy volume.  The advance/declines were negative and the overall market was much weaker than the Dow.  The summation index is still moving up.  OPEC has decided to cut oil production and the Fed beige book was in line with what was expected.  Technically speaking the short term indicators have rolled over but are not at mid-range yet.  At this rate I may have to wait for the employment report to come out before getting into a position on the SPY.  We also have a potential market mover in the Italian election on December 4th, which is a Sunday.  So there is plenty to consider in an attempt to get the SPY December calls.  GE was off almost 1/3 and the volume picked up to the downside.  Could GE be a precursor to lower prices?  Gold was off $15 on the futures as the US dollar rose again.  The XAU lost a point and GDX shed 3/8.  Volume was average.  Mentally I'm feeling OK.  The VIX picked up today but I do not think that it is the beginning of some kind of big down trend.  Perhaps a move back to the breakout level of around 2180 for the S&P 500 at the most.  That's my view at the moment.  I still favor the SPY December calls in the coming days.  I may place an open order overnight.  There are some near term unknowns concerning the jobs numbers and the situation in Italy.  But once we get through that, I don't see any major obstacles to higher prices.  I could be wrong.  One thing that is a concern is that the small stocks are not in the lead higher here and it's just the opposite.  The Dow leadership is usually a late in the rally type of action.  But for now I'm giving the benefit of the doubt to the recent rise in prices.  The volume has been really good and the small stocks have led the way up until now.  The rising summation index is also a positive.  Europe and Asia were generally higher overnight but not by much.  We'll move on to the month of December tomorrow.

Just hanging around today as the Dow fell off of its highs for the session.  The most watched index rose 23 points on OK volume.  The advance/declines were barely negative.  The summation index is moving up.  Still on the overbought side for the short term.  Perhaps we'll get a chance to purchase some calls on Thursday, if the short term decline continues.  Otherwise I'll have to take a wait and see approach.  There's still room to go lower here as most stock indices are still pretty far above their 50 day moving averages.  The prudent course of action would be to wait for a fall back towards those averages before attempting the SPY December calls.  GE was off 20 cents on average volume.  No hurry to do anything here.  Gold barely budged on the futures and the US dollar was off a bit.  The XAU and GDX had fractional losses on lighter volume.  Mentally I'm feeling OK.  End of the month tomorrow.  There's an OPEC meeting on the docket.  Plus the Feds beige book.  Not sure what that will bring but trying to remain patient for now.  I still think that the rally has legs, it is just a matter on the timing for getting long in the December option cycle.  Not an easy task to be sure.  But one that should be profitable if I can pull it off.  So we'll wait and see.  Asia was mixed and Europe generally higher yesterday.  We'll keep an eye on the overnight developments.

The week begins with a thud as the Dow fell 54 points on average volume.  The advance/declines were around 2 to 1 negative.  The overall market was weaker than the Dow.  The summation index continues higher though.  The market could not go up in a straight line forever.  I think that any pullback can be bought at this stage.  If we are weaker into Thursday, I'll be looking at the SPY December calls.  The short term technical indicators remain overbought but if we get back to mid-range on them I'm a buyer.  I'd probably like to be long going into the employment report if the market cooperates.  GE was off about 20 cents on light volume.  Overextended here as well.  Gold rose almost $15 on the futures as the US dollar was a bit lower.  The XAU was up 2 1/2, while GDX gained 3/4.  Volume was good here.  I don't think this is the start of anything serious to the upside but I've been wrong before.  However the fundamentals do not favor gold at the moment.  Mentally I'm feeling OK.  We've had quite a post election rally and today is really the first negative session for all of the stock indices.  We opened lower and stayed that way for much of the trading day.  Could the rally be over?  perhaps in the short term but I do believe that this advance has legs.  Unless the summation index turns around, I'm looking for higher prices going forward.  It will be tricky because I don't think the indicators will get to all the way oversold, as they did on the last trade.  However we will keep a close watch on things as they develop this week.  The ideal scenario of a clear signal probably won't show up before this trade needs to be entered.  I'm pretty confident of higher highs before the December expiration.  Asia was mostly higher and Europe lower overnight.  We'll see what transpires overnight.

A very light volume levitation for the day after Thanksgiving as the Dow rose 68 points during the shortened session.  The advance/declines were almost 2 to 1 positive.  The summation index continues to move up.  No overhead resistance and we'll just have to see how far it goes.  Overbought, staying there and due for some kind of rest at some point.  Where that point develops is anyones guess.  GE was up a dime on the same listless volume.  Gold was basically flat as the US dollar was off a bit.  The XAU and GDX had slight fractional gains on anemic volume.  Mentally I'm feeling a bit tired, did not sleep well.  New all time highs in many indices on a daily basis now.  Not a lot of press or media about it here so the rally can continue.  When everybody is talking about how great stocks are will be the warning sign to head for the exits.  We aren't there yet.  I'll continue to look and hope for some decline to try the SPY December calls.  However at the rate things are going, I may just have to remain on the sidelines.  3 weeks to go in the December option cycle.  Plenty of economic data due next week including the jobs report.  End of the month as well with the Feds beige book.  Enjoy the rest of the long weekend.

Still moving higher as the Dow gained 59 points on light volume.  The advance/declines were barely positive.  The summation index is moving up.  The overall market was weaker than the Dow, with the NASDAQ lower on the session.  But as I said before, it won't matter because we are on a ride to higher prices.  Still overbought on the short term indicators with no signs of rolling over.  It's a holiday week rally and there is no overhead resistance for the Dow and S&P.  GE was up over 1/8 on light volume.  The same overbought conditions are in place here.  Gold fell below the $1200 level as the futures dropped over twenty bucks.  The US dollar was higher.  The XAU lost 3 points and GDX shed a point.  Volume was heavy.  It appears the theme since the US election has been dump gold and bonds.  At the same time buy stocks and the US dollar.  Mentally I'm feeling OK.  No break in the rally and the idea for getting some SPY December calls seems as though its time has passed.  No point in chasing this rally now.  Perhaps the best idea is to take a break now that Thanksgiving is here.  Friday will be a light volume shortened session that will probably have an upward bias.  There will still be 3 weeks to go in the December option cycle when things return to normal on Monday.  Asia was slightly higher and Europe slightly lower overnight.  Have a Happy Thanksgiving everyone.

Up and away we continue to go as the Dow gained 67 points on good volume.  The advance/declines were over 2 to 1 positive.  The summation index is heading higher.  There is nothing to stop this incredible rally that began the day after the US election.  The overall market was a bit weaker than the Dow but that won't matter.  We closed above a couple of milestones.  19000 for the Dow and 2200 for the S&P 500.  Tomorrow should be a get away day before the Thanksgiving holiday.  GE was up 1/3 on light volume.  Overbought and staying there remains the theme here.  Gold was up a couple bucks on the futures and the US dollar was a bit higher as well.  The XAU and GDX were slightly higher on very light volume.  I do not see any imminent rally for the precious metals complex.  Sideways is the most we can hope for here.  Mentally I'm feeling OK.  At the rate we are going, there won't be a chance for the SPY December calls.  I do not want to chase this rally at this point.  Patience is required but we must be open to the possibility that we are waiting for an opportunity that will never arrive.  The next trade could wind up being in the opposite direction.  For now we'll wait and see if we get any kind of return for the technical indicators to at least mid-range.  Or a move towards the 50 day moving average at the very least.  Price and importantly volume tell you that the move up is for real.  It is much easier of course to trade with the trend.  Whether or not we get a chance to is the question.  Europe and Asia were both higher overnight.  Expect a muted session tomorrow.

Onward and upward as the stock market rally continues.  The Dow rose 88 points on average volume.  The advance/declines were 3 to 1 positive.  The summation index is moving up.  Overbought, staying there and hitting new all time highs as we go.  The stock market remains strong and there is no pullback to get long.  The fact that hitting new all time highs isn't even press worthy lets you know there is plenty of room to go on the upside.  I'm still looking at the SPY December calls if I get the chance.  Doubtful at this point.  GE was up 20 cents on light volume.  Gold was up $3 on the futures as the US dollar was lower for a change.  The XAU added 1 3/4, while GDX gained 3/8.  Volume was light.  The gold shares continue in the down trend that began in August.  Mentally I'm feeling OK.  A holiday week and buying is in vogue.  There is no overhead resistance.  We're over extended any way you measure it.  I certainly don't want to chase things here but what can you do?  I'm probably going to let this week pass unless we get a sharp drop, which I don't expect.  We should drift higher into Thanksgiving and then add a bit on the short Friday session.  Money is flowing into stocks.  We don't need to know the reasons we just need to pay attention and attempt to profit from it.  Europe and Asia were generally higher overnight.  I don't expect much volatility leading into the holiday.  We'll be watching things as usual though.

Friday of expiration week finished lower as the Dow fell 34 points on average volume.  The advance/declines were slightly negative.  The summation index is heading higher.  Lackluster trading to be sure as perhaps the holiday mode has begun early.  I'd still look to get long if we continue lower in the near term.  A pause to relieve the overbought condition would be healthy when it comes to moving forward later in the December option cycle.  Wishful thinking on my part and it hasn't happened yet.  GE was off 1/8 and the volume was light.  Gold fell almost ten bucks on the futures as the US dollar continues its climb.  The XAU and GDX had fractional losses on lighter volume.  No love for gold in this environment.  Mentally I'm feeling a bit tired.  It's been quite a run since the US election and I don't think anybody saw a rally of this magnitude occurring in such a short time.  The market really could use a breather.  The Thanksgiving holiday week is coming up and I expect slow trading to follow.  It will probably be a time to get ready for the end of the month and the beginning of December.  I'll be keeping an eye out for the SPY December calls as I don't foresee any obstacles at the moment to the levitation in stocks.  If we can get the short term technical indicators back to mid-range, that would be enough in my opinion to try the calls again.  We'll see.  Asia was mixed and Europe lower last night.  I'll be checking the charts over the weekend but I can already tell you that they remain overbought on the major stock indices.  Patience is most likely the trait that will be required at the moment.  For now it's Friday afternoon and time for a break.

Moving up again as the Dow rose 35 points on what now passes for average volume.  The advance/declines were slightly higher.  The summation index is heading higher.  Overbought and staying there.  The overall market was once again stronger than the Dow and that's a positive.  We are going higher, it just won't be as fast as we've seen.  Any decline can be bought.  There is nothing to derail the momentum at the moment.  Option expiration tomorrow before a holiday week.  I expect another day of gains.  GE was up a nickel on very light volume.  Gold was off $6 on the futures as the US dollar continues to climb.  The XAU fell 1 2/3, while GDX shed 1/2.  Volume was good.  The gold shares are about to experience the death cross, with the 50 day moving average going below the 200 day moving average.  The fundamentals and the technicals do not favor the gold shares here.  Mentally I'm feeling OK.  I did not do the short term SPY November call trade, as I was not nimble enough to pull it off.  The idea turned out to be solid though.  I am considering the SPY December calls if we do see some type of decline soon.  But that may never come.  The strength of this run up has been exceptional, as the volume indicates.  I think that everyone is looking for a pullback to purchase.  Thanksgiving week is generally slow but bullish, so there probably won't be an opportunity there.  I suppose I'll simply have to remain patient and wait for a decent set up.  Europe and Asia generally had slight gains in overnight trade.  We'll close out the week with options expiration Friday tomorrow.

Taking a breather as the Dow fell 55 points on lesser volume.  The advance/declines were slightly positive.  The summation index is heading up.  The overall market was stronger than the Dow, with the NASDAQ higher on the session.  We were overdue for some profit taking or decline and got that today.  I'm still considering a short term trade with 3 days to go on the November option cycle but will probably hold off.  I'm considering the December SPY calls as well.  We remain overbought on the short term indicators.  I do look for higher prices going forward though.  GE was flat on the day with light volume.  Gold didn't do much today as the US dollar continues to climb.  The XAU and GDX had fractional losses.  Volume was light.  Mentally I'm feeling OK.  It has been quite a run for stocks but I would expect them to take a rest here with a holiday week coming up.  If we can get the short term technical indicators to come off of their overbought condition perhaps we'll see an entry point for a SPY December call trade.  As for trying another SPY November call trade with 2 days to go, we'll have to see weakness in the morning tomorrow and go from there.  The risk would be very high to try that trade but I might.  I expect stocks to finish the week higher.  Plus we could see some more of the positive expiration week bias.  Once again, the short term trades are not my greatest strength.  Asia was mixed and Europe lower overnight.  We'll keep an eye on the overnight developments and see what tomorrow brings.

The rally rolls on as the Dow gained 54 points on heavy volume.  The advance/declines were well over 2 to 1 positive.  This will turn the summation index back up.  We should hit a new all time high in the S&P 500 at some point this week and it could be tomorrow.  Short term overbought and staying there for the technical indicators.  Any sustained weakness, if we get some, can be bought in my opinion.  Price and volume tell the story and things are looking pretty bullish at the moment.  The economic data came in as expected.  Despite all that, I did sell my SPY November calls today.  The 2 days prior to today took out most of the volatility premium and with only 3 days to go the risk of holding on wasn't worth it to me.  I do think we could go higher tomorrow but we could just as easily pause.  That would lead to a decline in the calls that I was not willing to risk.  The profit was over 100%.  As crazy as it sounds, I may try these calls again if we see some weakness tomorrow and the very short term technical indicators drop.  But that remains to be seen.  GE was up 1/4 and the volume was good.  I'm considering the January calls here if we get some pullback to the downtrend line that was broken.  Hasn't happened yet and it may not.  Gold was up a couple backs on the futures and the US dollar was slightly higher.  The XAU gained 3 1/2, while GDX rose 7/8.  Volume was good.  Maybe some bargain hunting here but there is no assurance that the decline has ended for gold and the gold shares.  Mentally I'm feeling OK.  This rally is incredible by any standard.  Just as prices don't go down forever in a straight line, they don't go up forever either.  We could simply move higher into the expiration but I do think we'll get some kind of at least short term decline in the next 3 days.  I could be wrong.  The market stays overbought longer than when it is oversold.  So we'll have to see what happens.  I might try a very short term call trade on weakness but the short term stuff is not usually my strong point.  At any rate, the medium term picture is bullish as well and with the summation index heading higher now the trend will remain higher for an extended period of time.  That's my guess at the moment.  Slight moves and generally positive last night for the overseas markets.  We'll see how it goes tomorrow. 

The Dow keeps climbing as it gained another 21 points on extremely heavy volume.  The advance/declines were barely positive and the overall market was weaker than the Dow.  The summation index is still trying to turn around.  Volume has been incredible lately and it is to the upside.  I do think that this election rally has legs beyond the near term.  I'm still holding on to the SPY November calls but the risk increases with each passing day.  There's only 4 days left in the November option cycle.  This trade still shows a profit but it appears the ideal time to sell has come and gone.  I'm looking for another run to the 2180 level to get rid of them.  Running out of time though and the market is short term overbought.  GE lost 20 cents on lighter volume.  Probably time for a rest here.  Gold lost a few bucks on the futures as the US dollar continues its recent run up.  The XAU and GDX had fractional gains on heavy volume.  Perhaps things have gone too far, too fast for the gold shares.  We'll see as the week unfolds.  Mentally I'm feeling OK.  Plenty of economic data out this week, beginning with tomorrows retail sales.  Inflation data is coming out as the week progresses.  My thinking is that traders will take care of any business this week as it is a holiday week next week with Thanksgiving.  The technical indicators are overbought on the short term but we have had a pause after the initial huge run up after the election.  Markets tend to stay overbought during up trends and that is what I think we are seeing now.  That is why I've continued to hold on to the SPY November call trade, even though time is running out.  I do think that another attempt at the 2180 level on the S&P 500 is not out of the question this week.  I could be wrong.  Asia was mixed and Europe slightly positive overnight.  We'll keep an eye on the overnight developments.

The Dow just keeps on going as it rose 39 points on very heavy volume.  The advance/declines were slightly positive.  The summation index is still trying to turn around.  It was a mixed bag as the S&P 500 was lower today but the small stocks rallied.  The volume to the upside has been incredible this week and I believe it means that we'll still see higher prices in the coming weeks.  A new all time high for the Dow and the S&P shouldn't be too far behind.  We saw a lot happen in the markets this week.  It probably won't be this volatile going forward.  I sincerely doubt it.  We are short term overbought on the major stock indices at this point.  Some backing and filling is bound to take place.  My SPY November calls are still in the black but here is only a week to go in the November option cycle.  Getting out of this position with the best profit will be tricky.  Or that time may have already passed.  Plenty to think about over the weekend regarding that trade.  GE was up another 1/3 on good volume.  Probably too late for the January calls there.  Gold got clobbered again as the higher dollar along with higher interest rates have taken the shine off of the precious metal.  The XAU dropped 5 3/4, while GDX lost over 1 3/4.  Volume was very heavy again.  We'll have to see how low we go here.  Mentally I'm feeling OK.  The price action and volume this week was extremely positive for stocks.  The INDU, TRAN and RUT are just some examples.  I don't expect a repeat of last week going forward but I am certainly positive on the outlook for equities.  Price and volume are things that you can usually count on for direction.  The S&P is overbought in the short run but there's still room to go higher medium term.  Exiting the SPY November call trade will be my main focus next week.  I could maybe give it until Wednesday of next week for the exit.  Anything beyond that would even entail more risk.  As I said before, I may have already missed the ideal exit point.  I'll be checking out the charts over the weekend.  Hopefully we'll see the usual positive expiration week bias but there are no guarantees.  It was quite an interesting trading week to be sure.  For now it's Friday afternoon and time for a break.

The rally continued for the big caps as the Dow added another 218 points on extremely heavy volume.  The advance/declines were lower though and the NASDAQ was lower.  The summation index is still trying to turn around.  The overall market was much weaker than the Dow and that is usually not a positive sign.  However with the volume expanding to the upside in such a big way, I still think that we're going higher before expiration next week.  The Dow is at a new all time high and I would expect at least the S&P 500 to do the same.  Longer term, it isn't usually bullish when you have the Dow leading the way.  But all we need is the summation index to start moving up and we'll see higher prices on all the major averages.  GE gained 3/4 on more than double normal volume.  And it was higher than that during the session.  I'm still considering the January calls here on a pullback if we get one.  Gold was off about $10 on the futures as the US dollar continues to climb.  The XAU dropped 6 points, while GDX shed 1 7/8.  Volume was extremely heavy.  The higher dollar along with higher interest rates makes gold unattractive at the moment.  Mentally I'm feeling OK.  I did put in a limit order to sell my SPY November calls but it wasn't filled.  Close but it didn't happen.  At this point it appears that I'll hang on to them until next week.  They are in the black and unless we see some extended decline in the next 6 days, this trade will turn a profit.  Money is pouring into US stocks right now and we are just getting to short term overbought.  Another plus day tomorrow and we'll be there.  Friday is a partial US holiday, with the bond market closed.  Perhaps the stock market will quiet down for a day.  Any declines can be bought in my opinion.  Asia was higher and Europe lower overnight.  We'll finish up a crazy market week tomorrow.

Now that was an interesting 24 market hours.  The US election was an upset as Donald Trump prevailed.  I was wrong on that guess.  Markets around the world collapsed on the realization that Trump was going to become president of the US.  The S&P 500 futures were down over 100 points.  It was incredible.  Even more incredible was the comeback.  The market came all the way back and then some.  The Dow finished today up 256 points on extremely heavy volume.  The advance/declines were positive.  The summation index is still trying to turn around.  The weak advance/declines for the past 2 sessions is puzzling.  I would have thought that we'd see at least a 2 to 1 or 3 to 1 ratio there.  You can't argue with price though.  My SPY November calls are still in the black.  GE was up almost 1/4 on heavy volume.  Gold, which had rallied $50 overnight finished with a gain of $5 on the futures.  The US dollar was stronger.  The XAU was up 2 2/3, while GDX added 2/3.  Volume was heavy but the gold shares finished well off of their highs.  Mentally I'm feeling OK.  The stock market crashed and came back all in a 24 hour period.  Well, the futures market did.  The cash market fell a bit this morning but then rallied hard.  We are getting to short term overbought but aren't there yet.  Of course we could always remain overbought once we get there.  I'm inclined to take whatever profit I have in this SPY trade tomorrow but I do think that we're going higher before expiration.  Friday is a semi-holiday for Veterans day and the bond market will be closed.  What happened in the markets last night was crazy and I hope we don't see anything like that again anytime soon.  There is no way to trade that kind of market action using options when the options market is closed.  The volume today was huge and we did break some downtrend lines on various indices.  So I still think that we're going higher.  It is a matter of how much before expiration and when to sell out the current SPY November call position.  I can make a case for holding on until next week but that's something I'll have to think about tonight.  Asia got rocked last night, while Europe was able to follow the US and finished with decent gains.  We'll keep an eye on the overnight action.

Still moving higher today as the Dow rose 73 points on good volume.  The advance/declines were positive.  The summation index is still trying to turn around.  We'll get the election results tonight and go from there.  The market is still not short term overbought yet.  My SPY November calls are still in the black.  I'll seriously be thinking about selling them if we get follow through upside tomorrow morning.  But I do think that this is the start of a longer term move higher.  If we can get the summation index turned back up, that would strengthen the rally theory.  The VIX has room to move lower as well.  GE was up 1/8 on OK volume.  We've made it back to the 50 day moving average here.  Gold was off $4 on the futures and the US dollar was higher as well.  The XAU and GDX had slight fractional moves one way or the other.  Volume was average.  Mentally I'm feeling OK.  With most of the earnings out of the way and the election season in the rear view mirror, what will be moving the market next?  That will the question on traders minds and I certainly don't have the answer.  I do know that the summation index is poised to turn back up and that would lead to a sustained move higher.  Hasn't happened yet but I do think that it will.  I think that with 9 days in a row lower for the S&P, the market pretty much sold itself out for the short term.  Unless there is a Trump upset victory tonight, we're going higher and to new all time highs before the year is out.  That's nothing that anybody is talking about now and the market likes to do what is least expected at times.  This could be one of those times.  Europe and Asia were generally higher but not significantly.  We'll see what tomorrow brings.

An oversold bounce and then some.  The Dow soared 371 points on good volume.  The advance/declines were about 5 to 1 positive.  I don't think the summation index will be turned around after todays market move but it is on the way to doing so.  Extremely oversold is where we were and we're not overbought yet.  Short covering and some new money came into play today.  My SPY November calls have moved all the way back into the black.  I think that this is the start of a move higher and I think that I'll hold these calls until Wednesday.  Of course I could change my mind.  I certainly did not expect a 46 point move up in one day for the S&P 500.  GE was up 7/8 on good volume.  Over the weekend I considered buying some January calls here but it is probably too late for that.  I still may if we get a pullback but I don't see that happening in the near future.  Gold got whacked as the flight to safety ended.  The precious metal futures fell over $20 as the US dollar was higher.  The XAU fell 2 1/3, while GDX lost a point.  Volume was good.  I'd expect gold and the gold shares to be lower to sideways until after the next Fed meeting.  Mentally I'm feeling OK.  We gained all that we lost last week in a day.  That wasn't expected by anyone.  Small stocks had huge moves today and the TRAN broke out above overhead resistance.  I think that the move higher has legs.  The advance/decline volume was almost 10 to 1 positive as well.  We'll have to see how the rest of the week plays out but if the gains hold, the medium term picture will turn bullish as well.  So we'll see.  Europe and Asia were higher overnight as well.  The market may be on hold tomorrow to get the election out of the way but I do think that we'll be moving higher.  New all time highs before the year is out?  As we've recently seen, anything is possible.

Down yet again today as the Dow could not hold onto its gains and lost 42 points on good volume.  The advance/declines were barely positive though and the overall market wasn't as weak as the Dow.  The summation index continues lower.  The employment report was just a tad weaker than anticipated.  There is something going on here but I certainly don't know what.  The extreme oversold condition of the market is dangerous but we still haven't seen a collapse.  My SPY November calls are still losers and it will take quite a miracle to get back to break even, if that's even possible.  The bounce that I'm waiting for has never arrived.  Oversold on all levels.  GE was up 1/8 or so on good volume.  Gold was up a couple bucks on the futures and the US dollar was a bit lower.  The XAU and GDX had slight fractional losses on average volume.  Still short term overbought for the gold miners.  Mentally I'm feeling OK.  Very extreme technical conditions at the moment.  This is something that is rarely experienced.  My guess is that we are going to get a giant relief rally after the election next week.  I do not think that we are going to crash.  The market has had that opportunity to collapse all week and it simply meanders its way lower.  The technical position that we're in is rare.  I suppose anything could happen but I would be shocked if we didn't get a huge move to the upside at some point in the coming week.  It may not last but it would be a chance to exit the SPY calls at a smaller loss.  Or who knows?  Perhaps it would be the beginning of a sustained move higher.  2 weeks to go in the November option cycle.  Once again I'll say that I do not know what is going on here with the market.  I do know that the market usually knows more than we do.  The extreme condition that we see today will probably resolve itself with something just as extreme.  Next week should be one of the most interesting market weeks that we've had in a while.  That is my prediction.  I'm also expecting a multi-hundred point move on some day during next week.  And my guess it that it will be to the upside.  I cannot stress enough the strangeness of the stock market at the moment.  The weakness is coming from something but I do not think that it's the US election.  Clinton should win and Congress should be split by party.  Perhaps there's something else that the market knows and we'll eventually find out.  I don't know.  Asia and Europe were mildly lower overnight, again with the exception of the losses in NIKK.  Plenty of charts to study over the weekend.  For now it's Friday afternoon and time for a break.

The downtrend continues as the Dow fell 29 points on good volume.  The advance/declines were negative.  The summation index continues lower.  The overall market was weaker than the Dow.  I have no explanation for what we are seeing here.  We are at a point where we should have seen a bounce or a collapse.  Neither has occurred.  The decline is slow and orderly.  Oversold on all indicators with no short covering or relief rally.  My SPY November calls are solidly in the red.  I suppose at this rate I will at least wait for the election before dumping them.  This is one of the strangest market periods that I've seen.  GE was off another 1/4 on light volume.  Gold was off around $5 on the futures as the US dollar continues to the downside.  The XAU rose 1 2/3, while GDX gained 1/2.  Volume was average.  Still overbought on the short term for the gold shares.  Mentally I'm doing OK besides being confused about the goings on here.  Perhaps the employment report tomorrow will bring some added volatility.  That's just a guess.  The VIX is already in the 20's and overbought.  But at the rate things are going here, that won't mean anything.  An extremely puzzling market situation is what we have here, only because the oversold condition persists without any relief.  The trend is obviously down and the small stocks have been the leaders.  Near term support has been violated on many charts and the 200 day moving average is now in play in several instances.  I've been looking for a bounce all week and it hasn't happened.  I guess I can't rule out the status quo move lower until the election.  That is something that I did not count on or expect.  When the normal technical indicators don't work, it usually means we're in extraordinary times.  It certainly doesn't seem like that to me.  But the market always has the final say and the support I saw at 2100 for the S&P 500 hasn't held either.  Asia and Europe were mostly lower with NIKK having the biggest decline.  We'll finish up the week tomorrow on the jobs report.  Interesting times. 

Oversold and still moving lower as the Dow fell 77 points on good volume.  The advance/declines were 3 to 1 negative.  The summation index is heading down.  The Fed announcement came and went.  We got a little rally there but could not hold on.  We are at a spot technically that deserves some upside unless we crash.  I do not expect the market to fall apart here.  The bounce that I'm looking for is long overdue.  The readings on my indicators point to this being an ideal time to buy, even for the medium term.  The roughly 2100 level on the S&P 500 should hold and I'm looking for higher prices from here.  My SPY November calls are well in the red but even these have a chance to get back to break even with just over 2 weeks in the November option cycle.  So we'll see.  GE was off over 1/3 on average volume.  It was a new closing low for GE in its slide.  Gold was up about $20 but fell in the aftermarket.  The US dollar lost ground again.  The XAU and GDX had one day reversals to the downside, opening higher and closing lower.  They lost 1 1/2 and 1/3 respectively on heavy volume.  Mentally I'm feeling OK.  It appears that fear and uncertainty have gripped the market.  Unless something is going on under the surface that I'm not aware of, these fears will prove unfounded.  The technical indicators are so oversold that we almost have to move higher.  Some of the major indexes are either at or near their 200 day moving averages.  They should find support there.  The only thing that would negate the positive near term outlook here is a market crash.  When you get the extreme readings we are seeing now along with all the negative market media, it's time to take the other side.  I could be wrong but I really don't think so.  I still expect a decent bounce and it should happen before the close on Friday.  I don't see any surprises with the US election and there should be a relief rally in a week for US equities.  I'm sticking with the theory that SPY calls are the way to go here.  Europe and Asia had decent losses overnight.  We'll be keeping an eye on the overnight action.

Volatility returned today as the Dow fell 105 points on very heavy volume.  The advance/declines were 3 to 1 negative.  The summation index is still heading lower.  We were off just over 200 at the lows of the session.  The S&P 500 broke the support at 2120 and dipped below 2100.  I think that 2100 should hold things here but the market will go where it wants.  Remaining short term oversold for the major averages and that could be dangerous as we saw today.  However I am still a believer in the SPY November calls at this juncture and I did purchase some today.  Of course I was early and paid more than I wanted to for them.  I should have waited to see if we were going to hit the 2100 level once we broke 2120.  Hindsight is never wrong and does you no good in the heat of the battle.  I'm rusty for sure but what I saw today is opportunity to me.  GE lost about 1/4 on average volume.  Gold found buyers with the drop in equities.  The precious metal futures rose $16 as the US dollar was lower.  The XAU gained 2 1/3, while GDX added almost 2/3.  Volume was good again.  Short term overbought on the gold shares.  Mentally I'm feeling OK.  I'm not sure where this decline is heading but I do expect a bounce right now.  With the market recovering half of what it lost today, perhaps we've seen the worst of the selling for now.  My owns short term indicators are very oversold and some kind of upside is coming.  Whether or not it's enough to get my SPY November calls in the black is another question.  Timing is everything when it comes to trading options for the short term.  If we do simply continue to trade lower then be ready for some type of collapse.  But I do believe we'll at least hold up here for a couple of days.  We've got the Fed announcement tomorrow and that should really be a non event.  The jobs report on Friday will probably be viewed as more important.  Plus whatever headlines come out of the election propaganda before the 8th.  Plenty of noise for the markets to sift through.  We'll stick to the technicals and expect some upside bounce tomorrow.  Asia was higher and Europe lower overnight.  I'm expecting the 2100 level to hold for the S&P 500 and perhaps will look to try the calls again if we get back there. 

We started the week and finished the month of October pretty much flat on the session.  The Dow fell 18 points on good volume.  The advance/declines were barely positive.  The summation index continues lower.  We were positive for most of the day and did not really see any decline.  I did place an order for the SPY November calls.  It wasn't filled but I am leaving it open overnight.  We are now short term overbought and should be heading higher from here.  A bounce at the least.  I can only hope that I'll be able to take advantage of it.  The VIX was higher today but there wasn't any volatility or decline.  I'm puzzled about that.  We've got economic data due this week and a Fed meeting.  So there will be plenty of excuses for things to happen.  I'm sticking with the buy weakness mantra.  I do believe that it will work here.  GE was off 1/8 after being higher earlier on heavy volume.  Still moving here on the takeover/acquisition talk.  Gold didn't do much today and the US dollar was little changed as well.  The XAU gained 2 1/8, while GDX added 3/4.  Volume was good.  Perhaps the gold shares will be leading the precious metal higher.  Mentally I'm feeling OK.  We'll begin the month of November tomorrow and the seasonality factor will be positive for stocks despite the election for now.  Plenty of time in the November option cycle.  I'm not sure what the market is waiting for but I do expect positive price action near term.  It would be great to see some weakness early tomorrow morning to perhaps fill my option order but that is just wishful thinking.  I would be surprised if we were lower on the day tomorrow.  The SPY option premiums are too high for my taste at the moment.  That said, the time for the calls is now in my opinion.  Europe and Asia were slightly lower overnight.  We'll see what tomorrow brings. 

Another interesting session as the Dow fell 8 points on good volume.  The advance/declines were negative.  The summation index continues lower.  We bounced around all over the place today with the overall market continuing to be weaker than the Dow.  The S&P 500 challenged the support at 2120 and bounced off.  Not completely short term oversold for the S&P but we will get there if Monday is negative.  My thinking is that any decline on Monday can be bought.  I'll be looking to purchase the SPY November calls.  The premiums are still high for the strike price that I'm looking at but there will be a short term buy signal if we close lower on Monday.  GE jumped 5/8 today on the possible takeover of a rival.  There is no other explanation for the sudden move in GE.  Volume was 2 times normal.  Gold rose $7 on the futures as the US dollar was lower despite a GDP report that was a bit better than expected.  The XAU and GDX had fractional gains on average volume.  Mentally I'm feeling OK.  My indicators are setting up for a buy on Monday if there is weakness.  I'm not sure if it will be the beginning of a rally or simply another case of relieving the short term oversold condition of the market.  The small stocks have been very weak of late and that isn't a good sign for calls.  The Dow has had better relative strength and that is something that is also a concern.  The daily chart of the Dow also has the Bollinger bands contracting to the point where we should see some type of big move one way or the other soon.  It is altogether possible that we are on the verge of a breakdown.  The lower summation index and small stock under performance are bearish.  However we are technically nearing the condition where we should at least see a bounce after Mondays price action.  I could be wrong but I'll be looking to purchase some SPY November calls.  Perhaps we'll see a final shake out before heading higher.  That would be the ideal scenario.  There will be plenty of charts to study over the weekend.  Monday will end the month of October as well.  For now it's Friday afternoon and time for a rest.

Lower today as we couldn't find any buyers in the final hour.  The Dow fell about 30 points on heavy volume.  The advance/declines were more than 2 to 1 negative.  The summation index is heading lower.  Once again the overall market was weaker than the Dow with the small stocks leading the way.  That is not a bullish condition.  I canceled my open order for the SPY November calls.  I'd like to try this trade again tomorrow or perhaps Monday if we continue to move lower.  The short term technical indicators for the major averages have rolled over with the exception of the Dow.  Waiting for an oversold reading would be the prudent course of action.  That reading could come on Monday if we continue to trend down.  GE was off 1/4 and the volume was light.  Gold was up a couple bucks on the futures today, while the US dollar was higher.  The XAU shed 1 1/8, while GDX lost 3/8.  Volume was average.  The gold shares now appear to be rolling back over.  Mentally I'm feeling OK.  The VIX has turned back up and so have its short term technical indicators.  That isn't a positive development.  The summation index is moving lower.  As much as I would like to purchase some SPY November calls, the technical picture is telling a different story.  The small stocks are really under performing lately and that is not a good sign for the bulls.  RUT has already broken the lower boundary of its trading channel and NYA is on the cusp of doing the same.  It appears that my idea for the SPY calls is the wrong one.  But we'll see.  The reaction to the GDP report tomorrow will be the key for Fridays trading I believe.  The final hour drop today wasn't encouraging.  Plenty of time in the November option cycle to do a trade of some sort.  We'll take our cues form the market and right now it is saying that we're headed lower.  Perhaps things won't be cleared up until after the election.  Or not.  Plenty to ponder.  Asia was lower and Europe little changed last night.  We'll close out the week tomorrow.   

A mixed bag today as the Dow was higher but the rest of the indices trailed.  The most watched index gained 30 points on good volume.  The advance/declines were almost 2 to 1 negative.  This should turn the summation index back down and that is not a positive sign.  The overall market was much weaker than the Dow, with the small stocks leading the way lower.  These are not bullish indications.  The short term technical indicators for the major averages have begun to roll over as well, with the exception of the Dow.  The RUT hit a fresh new recent low.  I did place an order for the SPY November calls though but it wasn't filled.  I'm leaving the order in overnight.  GE was up almost 1/4 on light volume.  Gold fell $6 on the futures and the US dollar was a bit lower as well.  The XAU shed 1 7/8, while GDX lost 1/2.  Volume was good.  Mentally I feel OK.  The technical back drop for getting the SPY November calls isn't ideal.  I may be early, as I can make a case for waiting to purchase them until we are short term oversold.  I do expect Friday to be a day of movement in the stock exchanges, off of the 3rd quarter GDP report.  I certainly do not know which way.  We've been in a trend channel for the S&P 500 for 4 months.  The range is roughly 2190-2120.  Once we break out, the move higher or lower should be pretty good.  You want to be in on that.  I'm thinking that we'll have another test of the lower end and that it will hold.  I could be wrong.  For me, the question is whether or not to wait for the GDP number on Friday.  I suppose I'll have to see how we move tomorrow and take it from there.  Europe and Asia were generally lower last night. 

Lower today as the Dow fell 53 points on good volume.  The advance/declines were negative.  The summation index is trending sideways.  Better volume to the downside and that is not a positive.  The market really can't get anything going one way or the other.  Short term overbought and oversold conditions are met with small moves one way or the other to relieve the conditions.  It is a tough and treacherous trading environment.  I am still looking to try the SPY November calls this week if we continue lower.  Perhaps tomorrow will be the day but the technical indicators are not exactly where I want them for a purchase.  I may have to err on the side of caution.  GE was off 1/4 and the volume was light.  Poor performance here is another sign of trouble.  However we've been dropping here for a few months while the overall market has moved sideways.  Gold rose over $10 on the futures as the US dollar finished little changed again.  The XAU was up 2 1/4, while GDX added better than 1/2.  Volume was average.  Mentally I'm feeling a bit tired, did not sleep well.  I am still recovering from my hospital nightmare but do feel well enough to trade.  The short term technical indicators for the major averages are starting to roll over again.  That is one of my concerns in attempting to place a trade on the call side in the next few days.  We do have some economic data coming out in the next 3 days.  The most market worthy in my mind will be the first look at GDP for the 3rd quarter on Friday.  I do believe that will be a mover for equities and as always the question is which way?  I'm now thinking that if we head lower into Thursday morning, that will be where I'd take a chance on the November calls.  But we still have tomorrow to get through.  Things are never set in stone with this game.  We could also simply head down from here and take out the lows.  That would negate any ideas of trading in calls near term.  So there's plenty to keep an eye on this week.  Europe and Asia were mixed overnight, with nominal moves.  We'll get earnings from AAPL after the bell and that could set the tone for tomorrow.

We begin the week with a nice gain as the Dow rose 77 points on what passes for average volume these days.  The advance/declines were positive.  The summation index is still trying to turn around and I believe that it will.  The small stocks along with the overall market were stronger than the Dow.  That's a positive and that's what I'd like to see.  Getting short term overbought for the major indices.  Any weakness now can be bought in my opinion.  I'm looking at the SPY November calls and if we see some pullback this week, that is what I will purchase for the next trade.  The ideal scenario would be a down day tomorrow with follow through on Wednesday morning.  That would be the purchase time if things occur in that order.  The market rarely cooperates.  GE was of a few cents on average volume.  Gold fell a couple bucks on the futures.  The US dollar didn't move much.  The XAU lost 1 3/4, while GDX shed 1/2.  Volume was average.  The short term technical indicators for the gold shares appear to be rolling back over here.  Mentally I'm feeling OK.  We're still waiting for something to happen with the months long trend channel that we've been stuck in.  My short term indicators say that we should see some downside tomorrow but they aren't right all the time.  Nothing is.  Plenty of time in the November option cycle to make a trade.  Perhaps I'm wrong here and we will simply continue to move sideways.  However with the summation index attempting to turn back up, I'm going to take my cues from there.  Europe and Asia were generally higher last night, although the FTSE was down.  We'll keep an eye on the overnight developments and go from there.

The Dow lost 16 points today on what passes for average volume these days.  The advance/declines were barely positive.  We sold off early and spent the rest of the day trying to get back to even.  The overall market was stronger than the Dow, with the small stocks leading the way.  That is a positive.  I'll be looking to get some SPY November calls on weakness next week.  Another test of the recent lows would be the ideal scenario for me.  GE was off about a dime and followed the overall market pattern for the session.  Down early and trying to come back.  My idea of purchasing the calls and puts only would have worked if you sold out of both positions in the first 5 minutes of trading.  The profit would have been small and certainly not worth the risk.  The calls would have been wiped out and the gain on the puts would have barely put the 2 trades into the black.  The price movement on the earnings wasn't big enough to make that idea worth it.  But of course, you don't know that ahead of time.  The gold futures were flat with the US dollar higher yet again.  The XAU and GDX had fractional losses on very light volume.  Mentally I'm feeling OK.  We made it through option expiration week and it was pretty tame considering that it's October.  I'd like to think that the market is going to hold in here and some type of rally is about to begin.  The short term technical indicators for the major indices are still mid-range.  The summation index is trying to turn around here in my opinion.  We're at an important point for the S&P.  If we roll over and take out the support at 2120, we could see a decent decline.  But it seems to me like the market wants to hang in here with the recent price action.  What I don't want to see is more of the same sideways price action that leads to nowhere.  With the November option cycle now in play, we have a full 4 weeks of time premium left.  More sideways inaction will erode the premium and make outright speculation even more difficult that it already is.  But we all know that you can't tell the market what to do.  It will get where it's going in its own time.  I'm sticking with the SPY November calls theory for now.  Europe and Asia were mixed last night with slight price moves.  I'll check the charts over the weekend as usual.  For now it's Friday afternoon and time for a break. 

Bouncing around today as the Dow fell 40 points on light volume.  The advance/declines were negative.  The summation index is trying to turn around.  What happens here with the summation index should tell us if we are going to get some type of rally or plummet.  That is what I believe right now.  The short term indicators for the S&P are back to mid-range  I also still expect a positive resolution to the multi-month channel that the S&P 500 is in.  I'm still looking at the SPY November calls as the next trade.  GE was flat and the volume was average for lately.  I did like the idea of getting both the $29 puts and calls for October, with the earnings due tomorrow.  However I did not risk any money on this idea.  We'll see if it would have worked.  Gold was off a few bucks on the futures and the US dollar was higher today.  The XAU and GDX both had very slight fractional losses on pretty light volume.  It's possible that the decline in the gold shares is over.  Mentally I'm feeling OK.  Not a lot of volatility considering it is option expiration week.  Things have been pretty orderly so far.  We've worked off the short term oversold condition, so there's a possibility that we'll head back to test the recent lows again.  If that occurs, I will be getting some SPY November calls unless the retest is a collapse.  I don't believe that will be the case.  Perhaps the recent slight move higher has some legs as well.  We are going to have to let the market figure things out.  Many are cautious at the moment and you usually don't get a big decline with that type of environment.  But who knows?  Europe and Asia were both higher in overnight trade.  We'll close out the week with option expiration Friday.

We managed to continue higher today as the Dow rose 40 points on light volume.  The advance/declines were 2 to 1 positive.  The summation index is trying to turn around here.  Today may have stopped the decline in the summation index.  This is important as it would signify that the broader market is gaining strength.  I'm a believer in this hypothesis and will continue to look at the SPY November calls as the next trade.  The market softened after the release of the Feds beige book but it was not a wholesale decline.  It is option expiration though and things could get tricky in the next 2 days.  The S&P 500 has bounced off of a short term oversold condition.  GE was up a few cents and came off of its highs.  Volume was about average for lately.  Expect movement here on Friday with the earnings release.  Perhaps purchasing both puts and calls at the $29 strike price would be a good idea.  Gold added $7 on the futures as the US dollar finished little changed again.  The XAU rose 2 1/4, while GDX gained 2/3.  Volume picked up.  A nice bounce so far this week for the gold shares.  Mentally I'm feeling OK.  2 days doesn't make a trend but I like the fact that the market has held up at this juncture.  Of course it remains to be seen if this is the start of something real of just another fluctuation in the continuing trend channel.  If we can get the summation index turned around, that would be an important clue.  I would like to let this week pass and then attempt to purchase the SPY November calls next week.  That is the ideal scenario for me at the moment.  the market rarely cooperates though.  I am more and more leaning towards a bullish resolution to the ongoing price action though.  I do not see a collapse here as imminent.  I could be wrong.  Asia was mixed, with Europe slightly positive overnight.  We'll keep an eye on aftermarket developments.

We did get a slight bounce today as the Dow rose 75 points on light volume.  The advance/declines were 3 to 1 positive.  The summation index is still heading lower though.  However the overall market was stronger than the Dow.  The short term technical indicators have turned up from an oversold reading but that doesn't mean that a rally is imminent.  We could simply turn back down again tomorrow.  I would be more convinced of a sustained move higher if we can build on today and get the summation index turned around.  Hasn't happened yet.  I am still looking at the SPY November calls though.  GE was up 1/8 on light volume.  Gold gained $7 on the futures as the US dollar was little changed.  The XAU added 3 1/8, while GDX gained 7/8.  Volume was OK.  We've held the 200 day moving average on the gold shares for now.  Mentally I'm feeling OK.  The economic data today was in line with expectations.  We'll get the Feds beige book tomorrow and that could be a mover.  It would be a positive if we could build on todays gains.  However the volume remains anemic and that is troublesome in either direction.  Plus there's the possibility that we're on hold until the election here is over.  We did get a signal for a bounce and it worked.  But where we go from here is the next question.  I don't have the answers at the moment.  Both Europe and Asia were positive overnight.  We'll keep an eye on things tonight as it appears that INTC disappointed with its earnings in the aftermarket.