Wednesday, December 28, 2016
Well I thought things would be quiet but that was not the case today. The Dow fell 111 points on very light volume. The advance/declines were better than 2 to 1 negative. This could turn the summation index lower. The short term technical indicators for the major averages have now rolled over. I do not think that this is the start of something big to the downside. In fact I think that any weakness tomorrow can be bought. The lack of volume tends to skew things each way. Although I thought the next trade would be in the new year, I'll be looking to purchase the SPY January calls tomorrow. I may be early on this trade but one of my short term tools is oversold at this point. GE fell almost 1/4 and the volume was light. Still short term overbought here. Gold and the US dollar were slightly higher. The XAU added 1 1/3, while GDX was up 1/3. Volume was average. Gold and the gold shares remain in a down trend. Mentally I'm feeling OK. Volatility picked up today but it was nothing drastic. I think we are simply in a light volume void with the major players either out or on the sidelines. Only 2 trading days left in 2016. I did not expect todays drop but I really don't think we'll see a repeat tomorrow. Of course I could be wrong. One of the issues here is that there is really no support under the Dow and S&P 500 at these levels. That said, I think what we've seen in the past couple of weeks is a consolidation from the recent run up. Even if I'm a bit early in this trade, there will be plenty of time for it to work out. I will re-check everything tonight but I'm pretty sure that if we see lower prices tomorrow, I'll be buying the SPY calls. Europe and Asia were mixed last night showing little price change with the exception of a rise in the Hang Seng. We'll keep an eye on the overnight developments and get ready for tomorrow morning.