Friday, December 30, 2016
Drifting lower in an aimless market to close out the year. The Dow fell 57 points on the usual light volume we've been seeing in this shortened week. The advance/declines were negative. We're short term oversold for some of the technical indicators. It looks like I was a day early for the SPY January calls. Or perhaps my take on things here is simply wrong. That trade is now in the red. What I thought was a consolidation isn't after todays price action. Things will need to be reversed to the upside in a hurry or this trade is dead. There is no support to speak of in the S&P 500 until we get to 2210. GE was off 1/8 and the volume remains light. Gold dropped $7 on the futures despite a weaker US dollar. The XAU was off over 3 points and GDX shed 7/8. Volume was good. The fundamentals remain bearish for gold. Mentally I'm feeling OK. Volatility appears to be short term overbought now and that could lead to some positive price action for stocks at the beginning of the new year. Maybe. I also could be reading everything wrong here but some of the indicators that I use show at least some kind of bounce happening soon. I do think that it could be more than that. I'm still thinking that 20000 will be reached early in 2017. The trading was thin in the past week and we could have just seen a downside skew because of that. But who knows? We'll find out more next week when all the players return. My SPY January call trade is now in the red but there is plenty of time left in the January option cycle. I'll look things over again this extended holiday weekend. For now it's the final Friday afternoon of 2016 and time for a rest. Happy and healthy New Year to everyone.