Monday, December 12, 2016
The Dow keeps rolling along as it added 39 points today on good volume. The advance/declines were almost 2 to 1 negative though. The summation index is still moving up. The overall market was weaker than the Dow. That's 2 days in a row of weak internals but the Dow moving up anyway. That kind of technical action is at least a warning that things could change. All the short term indicators remain overbought. I am looking at a short term trade for the SPY December puts but no valid set up has appeared. With only 4 days to go in the December option cycle, doing this trade would be fraught with risk. GE gained a few cents on average volume. Gold finished flat on the session but did come up off of the lows. The US dollar was weaker today. The XAU and GDX had very slight fractional gains on average volume. Mentally I'm feeling OK. We've got plenty of economic data out this week plus the Fed. Throw in option expiration and I think we should see some volatility. The major stock indices remain very overbought despite todays pause for most. The small stocks got hit today and they can be leaders. That said, any trade of the SPY puts would have to be a very short term deal. Not exactly my specialty. But I'll have to see how things go tomorrow. Perhaps the wiser idea would be to go out to the SPY January calls. If we did get some selling this week perhaps that will set up. For the moment the rally remains intact but the negative breadth is a warning sign. Europe and Asia were mixed overnight, though Hong Kong had a decent drop. We'll keep an eye on the overnight developments.