Wednesday, December 07, 2016
Powering to the upside as the Dow climbed 297 points on heavy volume. The advance/declines were a bit over 3 to 1 positive. The summation index is moving higher. Overbought, staying there and there is no overhead resistance. Sellers are gone. I did not get any of the SPY December calls but that idea was valid. I've asked myself how long can this go on and I guess the answer is longer than you think. I'm looking for the next trade and perhaps the SPY December puts might be in order for a short term trade on a valid signal. However the primary trend is up and it usually doesn't pay to go against that. GE was higher by 3/8 on average volume. Gold rose $5 on the futures as the US dollar was lower. The XAU and GDX had slight fractional gains on weak volume. The fundamentals remain bearish for gold. Mentally I'm feeling OK. Quite a run we've had since the election and it appears there is no stopping this bull move. We'll see profit taking at some point but I do not look for an extended downturn anytime soon. The latter half of December is generally bullish for stocks. I will look for a short term top next week and perhaps trade it if we get some kind of negative divergence. However it is possible that the more prudent trade would be to go out to the SPY January calls. I do somewhat lament not being able to profit from the current move. But at least the hypothesis of the market was correct and having a handle on things plays out to the positive in the long run. Seven days left in the December option cycle. I have to say after today that the prices are so overextended, some type of consolidation is necessary. A pause is due and sooner rather than later. I'll be looking for a short term signal to try the SPY December puts between now and expiration on the 16th. Europe and Asia were both higher again overnight as money pours into stocks around the world. We've got the ECB to deal with tomorrow but I don't expect any surprises. We'll keep an eye on the overnight action.