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Monday, December 19, 2016

It feels like the holidays already as the Dow gained 39 points on light volume.  The advance/declines were positive.  The summation index is starting to head back up from a short sideways position.  We began the day higher and went sideways after that.  Plenty of economic data on the 22nd and perhaps that will get us going.  Still short term overbought for the main indices.  I'd like to see some pullback to get the SPY January calls but that is wishful thinking.  GE was up over 1/8 on OK volume.  Gold was up a few bucks on the futures as the US dollar was higher.  The XAU and GDX barely moved.  Volume was light.  I don't see any sustained upside for this group anytime soon.  Mentally I'm feeling a bit tired, did not sleep well.  Overbought has been the theme for weeks now as the rally has taken a multi-day breather.  We're in a good seasonal time frame for stocks, so I'm not looking at the puts now.  That will be something for next year.  The extra week in the January option cycle keeps the premiums above average for now.  There's no rush to trade at the moment.  Volatility has shrunk and Dow 20000 before the end of the year still seems likely to me.  Patience is the way to go for now.  Asia was lower and Europe mixed overnight.  We'll watch what happens in the after hours.

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