Wednesday, December 14, 2016
Dow 20000 was put on hold today as the most watched index fell 118 points on good volume. The advance/declines were 4 to 1 negative. This could put a stop to the summation index moving up. We can blame the Fed as it signaled more rate hikes to come following todays anticipated move up. I don't know if this means that the rally is over but perhaps a long overdue pause is beginning to shape up. One day doesn't make a trend though and we are moving into a very favorable seasonal period for stocks. I'm still looking out for the SPY January calls. GE was off 1/4 on heavy volume. Gold got pummeled by $13 on the futures. The US dollar broke out to a new recovery high for the year. The XAU lost 4 1/4, while GDX shed 1 1/8. Volume was heavy. Gold is oversold and staying there as the fundamental picture here remains bearish. Mentally I'm feeling OK. Everybody was looking for a rise in rates and the market sold off anyway. I don't think that it's the beginning of a substantial decline. But I've been wrong often enough before. Perhaps we can get to an oversold short term technical condition to try those January calls. We will simply have to wait and see how the next few days play out. Only a couple of days here for the December option cycle. There is plenty of time in my mind to look out to January because there is an extra week in the January option cycle. The short term technical indicators for the major indices have at least rolled over now. I do still think that the market will run this thing up to the 20000 level for the Dow between now and the January expiration. I'll simply be looking for an entry point for the SPY calls. Unless we completely unravel here and I don't expect that. The recent poor breadth was a warning for something like today. Whether or not it lasts is the next question. Europe was lower and Asia mixed last night. We'll keep an eye on the overnight developments.