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Thursday, October 20, 2016

Bouncing around today as the Dow fell 40 points on light volume.  The advance/declines were negative.  The summation index is trying to turn around.  What happens here with the summation index should tell us if we are going to get some type of rally or plummet.  That is what I believe right now.  The short term indicators for the S&P are back to mid-range  I also still expect a positive resolution to the multi-month channel that the S&P 500 is in.  I'm still looking at the SPY November calls as the next trade.  GE was flat and the volume was average for lately.  I did like the idea of getting both the $29 puts and calls for October, with the earnings due tomorrow.  However I did not risk any money on this idea.  We'll see if it would have worked.  Gold was off a few bucks on the futures and the US dollar was higher today.  The XAU and GDX both had very slight fractional losses on pretty light volume.  It's possible that the decline in the gold shares is over.  Mentally I'm feeling OK.  Not a lot of volatility considering it is option expiration week.  Things have been pretty orderly so far.  We've worked off the short term oversold condition, so there's a possibility that we'll head back to test the recent lows again.  If that occurs, I will be getting some SPY November calls unless the retest is a collapse.  I don't believe that will be the case.  Perhaps the recent slight move higher has some legs as well.  We are going to have to let the market figure things out.  Many are cautious at the moment and you usually don't get a big decline with that type of environment.  But who knows?  Europe and Asia were both higher in overnight trade.  We'll close out the week with option expiration Friday.

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