Monday, October 17, 2016
Lower to the beginning of option expiration week as the Dow fell 52 points on light volume. The advance/declines were negative. The summation index continues lower. No buyers to be found as we drift lower. Technically we're short term oversold so a case can be made here for a bounce. I'm not sold on any type of sustainable rally at the moment. We would have to see the breadth improve and the small stocks take the lead to the upside for a longer term move higher. However the decline needs to be contained here and now or it has the potential to spiral down much lower than where are now. So we are at a key point in time in my opinion. I think that the bounce is possible but beyond that I'm just not sure. GE lost few cents on average volume. Earnings due on Friday. Gold was little changed and the US dollar was a bit lower. The XAU added 1 1/4, while GDX rose 1/3. Volume was light. Mentally I'm feeling a bit tired, did not sleep well. A fair amount of economic data still due this week along with the Feds beige book and more earnings reports. If we don't bounce tomorrow it could be an ugly session. If we do bounce, the nature and strength of a move higher will tell us a lot about where we are going. There has been a lot of chatter about being on hold until after the US presidential election. That could happen as well, which would simply keep us moving sideways in a channel. That has been the case for quite a while. But I think tomorrow is important, given where we are at on the charts. I'm thinking that we will bounce but I could be wrong. Asia was mixed and Europe lower overnight. Stay tuned.