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Tuesday, October 18, 2016

We did get a slight bounce today as the Dow rose 75 points on light volume.  The advance/declines were 3 to 1 positive.  The summation index is still heading lower though.  However the overall market was stronger than the Dow.  The short term technical indicators have turned up from an oversold reading but that doesn't mean that a rally is imminent.  We could simply turn back down again tomorrow.  I would be more convinced of a sustained move higher if we can build on today and get the summation index turned around.  Hasn't happened yet.  I am still looking at the SPY November calls though.  GE was up 1/8 on light volume.  Gold gained $7 on the futures as the US dollar was little changed.  The XAU added 3 1/8, while GDX gained 7/8.  Volume was OK.  We've held the 200 day moving average on the gold shares for now.  Mentally I'm feeling OK.  The economic data today was in line with expectations.  We'll get the Feds beige book tomorrow and that could be a mover.  It would be a positive if we could build on todays gains.  However the volume remains anemic and that is troublesome in either direction.  Plus there's the possibility that we're on hold until the election here is over.  We did get a signal for a bounce and it worked.  But where we go from here is the next question.  I don't have the answers at the moment.  Both Europe and Asia were positive overnight.  We'll keep an eye on things tonight as it appears that INTC disappointed with its earnings in the aftermarket.

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