Wednesday, October 19, 2016
We managed to continue higher today as the Dow rose 40 points on light volume. The advance/declines were 2 to 1 positive. The summation index is trying to turn around here. Today may have stopped the decline in the summation index. This is important as it would signify that the broader market is gaining strength. I'm a believer in this hypothesis and will continue to look at the SPY November calls as the next trade. The market softened after the release of the Feds beige book but it was not a wholesale decline. It is option expiration though and things could get tricky in the next 2 days. The S&P 500 has bounced off of a short term oversold condition. GE was up a few cents and came off of its highs. Volume was about average for lately. Expect movement here on Friday with the earnings release. Perhaps purchasing both puts and calls at the $29 strike price would be a good idea. Gold added $7 on the futures as the US dollar finished little changed again. The XAU rose 2 1/4, while GDX gained 2/3. Volume picked up. A nice bounce so far this week for the gold shares. Mentally I'm feeling OK. 2 days doesn't make a trend but I like the fact that the market has held up at this juncture. Of course it remains to be seen if this is the start of something real of just another fluctuation in the continuing trend channel. If we can get the summation index turned around, that would be an important clue. I would like to let this week pass and then attempt to purchase the SPY November calls next week. That is the ideal scenario for me at the moment. the market rarely cooperates though. I am more and more leaning towards a bullish resolution to the ongoing price action though. I do not see a collapse here as imminent. I could be wrong. Asia was mixed, with Europe slightly positive overnight. We'll keep an eye on aftermarket developments.