Thursday, October 13, 2016
The market sold off hard early and then spent the rest of the day making a comeback. We didn't quite make it all the way back as the Dow fell 45 points on average volume. The advance/declines were 2 to 1 negative. The summation index continues lower. The small stocks are still under performing. Oversold on the short term technicals for the major indices but there is still a little bit of room to move lower. The 2120 level in the S&P 500 is said to be an important point to hold. I think the 2100 level is the number but that's just my interpretation of things at the moment. The daily candlestick pattern on the S&P today has the potential to be a hammer depending on the market action going forward. GE fell 1/8 and the volume was light. Gold rose $5 on the futures as the US dollar was lower for a change. The XAU and GDX had small fractional gains on average volume. Trying to hold at the 200 day moving average for the gold share indices. Mentally I'm feeling OK. It appeared that we were going to fall off a cliff early this morning but buyers showed up and stemmed the decline. However with the summation index still heading down, the path of least resistance is lower. The VIX had another jump up and the technical indicators here are overbought. I think that we are at a spot where maybe the selling is getting exhausted in the near term. I could be wrong. I'm not sure how the market will react to the economic data tomorrow but that would be the case at any time. I'd like to see us get down to the 2100 level on the S&P 500. That would be my entry point for the SPY November calls. Could all just be wishful thinking on my part. Europe and Asia were generally lower as the data from China last night was weaker than expected. We'll close out the trading week tomorrow.