Wednesday, November 02, 2016
Oversold and still moving lower as the Dow fell 77 points on good volume. The advance/declines were 3 to 1 negative. The summation index is heading down. The Fed announcement came and went. We got a little rally there but could not hold on. We are at a spot technically that deserves some upside unless we crash. I do not expect the market to fall apart here. The bounce that I'm looking for is long overdue. The readings on my indicators point to this being an ideal time to buy, even for the medium term. The roughly 2100 level on the S&P 500 should hold and I'm looking for higher prices from here. My SPY November calls are well in the red but even these have a chance to get back to break even with just over 2 weeks in the November option cycle. So we'll see. GE was off over 1/3 on average volume. It was a new closing low for GE in its slide. Gold was up about $20 but fell in the aftermarket. The US dollar lost ground again. The XAU and GDX had one day reversals to the downside, opening higher and closing lower. They lost 1 1/2 and 1/3 respectively on heavy volume. Mentally I'm feeling OK. It appears that fear and uncertainty have gripped the market. Unless something is going on under the surface that I'm not aware of, these fears will prove unfounded. The technical indicators are so oversold that we almost have to move higher. Some of the major indexes are either at or near their 200 day moving averages. They should find support there. The only thing that would negate the positive near term outlook here is a market crash. When you get the extreme readings we are seeing now along with all the negative market media, it's time to take the other side. I could be wrong but I really don't think so. I still expect a decent bounce and it should happen before the close on Friday. I don't see any surprises with the US election and there should be a relief rally in a week for US equities. I'm sticking with the theory that SPY calls are the way to go here. Europe and Asia had decent losses overnight. We'll be keeping an eye on the overnight action.