Tuesday, November 01, 2016
Volatility returned today as the Dow fell 105 points on very heavy volume. The advance/declines were 3 to 1 negative. The summation index is still heading lower. We were off just over 200 at the lows of the session. The S&P 500 broke the support at 2120 and dipped below 2100. I think that 2100 should hold things here but the market will go where it wants. Remaining short term oversold for the major averages and that could be dangerous as we saw today. However I am still a believer in the SPY November calls at this juncture and I did purchase some today. Of course I was early and paid more than I wanted to for them. I should have waited to see if we were going to hit the 2100 level once we broke 2120. Hindsight is never wrong and does you no good in the heat of the battle. I'm rusty for sure but what I saw today is opportunity to me. GE lost about 1/4 on average volume. Gold found buyers with the drop in equities. The precious metal futures rose $16 as the US dollar was lower. The XAU gained 2 1/3, while GDX added almost 2/3. Volume was good again. Short term overbought on the gold shares. Mentally I'm feeling OK. I'm not sure where this decline is heading but I do expect a bounce right now. With the market recovering half of what it lost today, perhaps we've seen the worst of the selling for now. My owns short term indicators are very oversold and some kind of upside is coming. Whether or not it's enough to get my SPY November calls in the black is another question. Timing is everything when it comes to trading options for the short term. If we do simply continue to trade lower then be ready for some type of collapse. But I do believe we'll at least hold up here for a couple of days. We've got the Fed announcement tomorrow and that should really be a non event. The jobs report on Friday will probably be viewed as more important. Plus whatever headlines come out of the election propaganda before the 8th. Plenty of noise for the markets to sift through. We'll stick to the technicals and expect some upside bounce tomorrow. Asia was higher and Europe lower overnight. I'm expecting the 2100 level to hold for the S&P 500 and perhaps will look to try the calls again if we get back there.