Wednesday, November 30, 2016
We finished the last session of the month mixed as the Dow added 2 points on very heavy volume. The advance/declines were negative and the overall market was much weaker than the Dow. The summation index is still moving up. OPEC has decided to cut oil production and the Fed beige book was in line with what was expected. Technically speaking the short term indicators have rolled over but are not at mid-range yet. At this rate I may have to wait for the employment report to come out before getting into a position on the SPY. We also have a potential market mover in the Italian election on December 4th, which is a Sunday. So there is plenty to consider in an attempt to get the SPY December calls. GE was off almost 1/3 and the volume picked up to the downside. Could GE be a precursor to lower prices? Gold was off $15 on the futures as the US dollar rose again. The XAU lost a point and GDX shed 3/8. Volume was average. Mentally I'm feeling OK. The VIX picked up today but I do not think that it is the beginning of some kind of big down trend. Perhaps a move back to the breakout level of around 2180 for the S&P 500 at the most. That's my view at the moment. I still favor the SPY December calls in the coming days. I may place an open order overnight. There are some near term unknowns concerning the jobs numbers and the situation in Italy. But once we get through that, I don't see any major obstacles to higher prices. I could be wrong. One thing that is a concern is that the small stocks are not in the lead higher here and it's just the opposite. The Dow leadership is usually a late in the rally type of action. But for now I'm giving the benefit of the doubt to the recent rise in prices. The volume has been really good and the small stocks have led the way up until now. The rising summation index is also a positive. Europe and Asia were generally higher overnight but not by much. We'll move on to the month of December tomorrow.