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Thursday, August 22, 2013

We needed to see some rally today to avoid disaster and we got it.  The Dow rose 66 points on light volume.  The advance/declines were 5 to 1 positive.  We did have a very short term positive divergence occur in the McClellan oscillator yesterday.  The jury is still out on whether the decline has run its course.  I don't believe that it has.  However todays action in the face of a market shutdown at the NASDAQ due to technical problems was impressive.  The summation index is still heading lower.  I think the key to what happens will be determined when the McClellan oscillator gets back up near the zero line.  A failure at that point will lead to the collapse that I've been talking about.  The conditions are in place for something like that to happen.  But it doesn't mean a crash will happen.  Normally the conditions for such an event are not in place.  Caution is still warranted.  GE was up over 1/8 on what passes for average volume these days.  Below the 50 day moving average here.  The gold futures were flat on the session, with a slight gain in the aftermarket.  The US dollar was slightly higher.  The XAU gained 2 points.  ABX, GG and NEM had slight fractional gains on very light volume.  Consolidating the recent gains for the gold shares.  As long as we don't roll over here, there could be some more upside.  Gold so far has been moving sideways all week.  Mentally I'm feeling OK.  Really a good time to keep a close eye on things.  The TRAN had a great day and could lead us higher.  The small stocks are acting better here as well.  However the volume is light.  We are in a precarious position.  My guess is that it will all get sorted out after Labor Day.  Still oversold on the short term technicals for the stock indexes.  Gold is digesting the good gains of last week.  The favorable seasonal period for gold remains in place.  But if the stock market tanks, the gold shares will go with it.  We'll close out the trading week tomorrow.

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