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Wednesday, August 28, 2013

Some stabilization today as the Dow rose 48 points on light volume.  The advance/declines were positive.  I'm still of the thought that it's just a pause in the inevitable coming collapse in prices.  The summation index continues lower.  Getting ever closer to the zero line in the summation index.  Could things turn around?  Of course but that isn't the scenario from my point of view.  Maybe we can hold on until the big boys get back next week so they can get short.  Or we could continue to run on down tomorrow.  GDP revision on tap tomorrow.  Still oversold on the short term technicals.  GE was flat on light volume.  Nothing new happening here.  Gold was little changed on the futures but off the highs for the session.  The US dollar was higher today.  The gold shares took another hit today.  The XAU dropped 3 points.  ABX and GG were off around 1/3.  NEM fell 3/4.  Volume was average.  The question here?  Is the rally in the gold shares done?  Of course I hope not but it could be.  The short term technicals are rolling over for the gold shares.  Still in the favorable seasonal period for gold but it doesn't mean things will simply go straight up.  Mentally I'm feeling OK.  I did place another order for some September OEX puts but it wasn't filled.  I don't want to pay too much for the puts but then again I don't want to miss the downside either.  I may just wait to the beginning of next week but the market usually doesn't accommodate.  Either way I'm sticking with the collapse for the stock indexes coming up sooner rather than later.  Caution is still advised.  Gold is overbought and due for a rest.  Ditto for the gold shares and they have already come off of their highs.  We'll keep an eye on events unfolding overnight and go from there. 

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